Oudtshoorn

Politics in Oudtshoorn can be unpredictable, with more twists and turns than the Meiringspoort mountain pass leading to the town of De Rust in this municipality. This Garden Route District Municipality is known for its outsized political personalities, infighting and local flavour. Power has shifted between the ANC and the DA over the last few years, with smaller parties often acting as the kingmakers.  

In 2016, the DA won an outright majority in the town, winning 14 out of the 25 seats on the council.  They were not beholden to small parties. However, the relationship between the party and its number one citizen in Oudtshoorn, Mayor Colan Sylvester soured, with Sylvester eventually resigning. 

Chris Mcpherson was elected as his replacement. Three councillors who were purported to be aligned to the former mayor subsequently resigned from the DA. This meant the DA lost its outright majority, while the vacancies left by its candidates remained unfilled. Mcpherson and the DA crafted a coalition together with a regional party, the Independent Civic Organisation of South Africa (ICOSA) and a local party, the South African Religious Civic Organisation (SARCO). Incidentally, while ICOSA works with the DA in Oudtshoorn, the party recently completed a coalition agreement with the ANC in nearby Kannaland (Ladismith). The Klein Karoo is clearly big enough for complex political arrangements. 

All three DA councillors who resigned represented marginal seats — two of their wards voted in favour of the ANC on the provincial ballot in 2019. The three councillors are also standing as independents in the ward and are likely to test the DA’s defences in what could be a tightly fought race. 

In nearby George, GOOD bruised the DA in four Super Wednesday by-elections. GOOD snatched a safe seat from the DA and gave it a run for its money in the additional three contests. GOOD is also putting in a serious challenge in these by-elections. One must remember that in 2006, Patricia De Lille’s Independent Democrats won six seats in Oudtshoorn. It ran hot on the heels of the ANC and the DA. Although the party underperformed in Oudtshoorn in 2019, the De Lille brand has clearly done well in the past and could be a deciding factor again in the municipality’s politics. 

If the DA loses more than one seat, it loses its outright majority and will have to carry on working with SARCO or ICOSA. If it loses all three seats it has to work with ICOSA and might continue to work with SARCO to have some buffer in the council.

The ANC will look at the 2019 results here and know that it has a major opportunity to get its Garden Route mojo back. The ANC’s hope will be that the DA, GOOD and independents cannibalise one other, in order to emerge as the winner in all three contests. 

GOOD will want its orange blanket to spread to other parts of the Western Cape. The party also came close in a Saldanha Bay (Louwville, Vredenburg) by-election last month. Its activists will also be motivated after their strong showing on Super Wednesday.  In a four-horse race, anything is possible. 

Finally, the three independents are well known in their wards. Hendrik Ruiters was a former ANC ward councillor before winning the election with the DA in 2016. Ewa Fortuin is an experienced councillor who has served the DA both as a PR councillor and a ward councillor. Nellie Soman has represented Dysseldorp for many years as a ward councillor. 

They could have looked at running under the banner of another party, but decided to run as independents. They might be testing the waters and eyeing an opening for a new political grouping in Oudtshoorn 2021. They will want to use their strong name recognition and years of representing their respective communities as their main selling point, while also hoping that a crowded, competitive field works to their advantage. They have all been endorsed by Sylvester. 

Ward 4 (Bridgeton, Bongolethu) DA (44%) ANC (41%) ICOSA (6%) SARCO (3%) PBI (3%) Turnout (48%)

Ward 4 is east of the town centre and is divided into Bongolethu and Bridgeton. 

The majority of registered voters residing in Ward 4 — over 70% — vote in Bongolethu. In 2019, Bongolethu was secured by the ANC by over 330 votes. While the DA won by a large margin in Bridgeton, winning by more than 240 votes, it was not enough to close the gap with the ANC which received 88 more votes on the provincial ballot in the voting districts making up this ward. 

In 2016, the DA received 705 votes, beating the ANC by 53 votes in the ward. ICOSA came third with just over 100 votes. The ANC will hope that it racks up the numbers in Bongolethu and the DA, GOOD and former ward councillor Ewa Fortuin split the vote in Bridgeton. 

There is one more independent candidate running in Ward 4 — Mlandeli Nyuka — who is endorsed by Independents for Oudtshoorn. The EFF are also on the ballot.

Ward 5 (Bridgeton, Smartie Town) DA (36%) ANC (27%) ICOSA (22%) SARCO (9%) EFF (2%). Turnout (55%)

Ward 5 also lies east of the city centre near the N12 road linking the town with De Rust. Ruiters won the ward as the DA candidate in 2016. The DA received 686 votes, with the ANC finishing 171 votes behind on 515 votes. ICOSA had a strong showing here, getting the bronze medal with 423 votes. 

In 2019, the DA won by a wider margin when one considers the provincial ballots in the voting districts that make up this ward. The DA beat the ANC here by just under 340 votes and won both voting districts.  Turnout was lower in Ward 5 in 2019 than in the 2016 local government elections. 

Of the three wards, this is the one the DA should have the best chance of retaining. The DA will hope that it can attract many of the ICOSA voters from 2016 and 2019, as ICOSA is not represented on the ballot here. GOOD and former ward councillor Ruiters will also believe that a path to victory will stem from ICOSA voters who. Ruiters, a wily political veteran in the region, is running as an independent. 

There are two other independents contesting. Arthur Bezuidenhout is endorsed by Independents for Oudtshoorn while little known about Adriaan Van Niekerk. The EFF completes the line-up in Ward 5. 

Ward 10 (Dysseldorp) DA (43%) ANC (36%) Advieskantoor (7%) ICOSA (4%) EFF (4%). Turnout (60%)

Dysseldorp sits between Oudtshoorn and De Rust on the N12 national road, over 20 kilometres from Oudtshoorn. 

The DA won by 167 votes in 2016 but the ANC won by 177 votes on the provincial ballot of the two voting districts, which make up this ward. The ANC carried both districts in 2019 and will see a big opportunity in Ward 10. Of the three wards, this is where GOOD performed best in 2019, getting 7% of the provincial vote. The former ward councillor Nellie Soman would love to complete her term as Dysseldorp’s representative in council. She is running as an independent. The EFF also tends to have more support in Dysseldorp compared to the other two wards being contested on 9 December and will want a stronger showing here. 

Turnout was lower in Ward 10 in 2019 than in the 2016 local government elections. 

Overstrand

Ward 12 (Zwelihle Hermanus) in Overstrand. ANC (89%) DA (6%) EFF (4%). Turnout (58%)

Zwelihle is southwest of Hermanus, next to Sandbaai between the R43 regional road and the ocean. Overstrand is part of the Overberg district of the province. Its seat of power is in Hermanus and also includes the towns of Kleinmond and Gansbaai. 

Considering the 2016 election results, this ward seems extremely safe for the ANC which secured close to 90% of the vote. However, in 2019 on the provincial ballot, a local party called LAND got 220 more votes than the ANC on the provincial ballot in this ward, ending up with more than half of the votes cast in this ward. The ANC’s percentage vote share fell from 89% in 2016 to 43% in 2019. The ANC in the Overberg will be more focused on this by-election and have the advantage of just focusing its resources on one race in the region on by-election day. 

At the same time, Zwelihle voters could have been taken by LAND’s local activism and messaging in 2019 but wondered whether it would be a wasted vote as the party had a low chance of winning a seat in the provincial legislature and that they have the opportunity now to do even better in a by-election. 

On Super Wednesday, the ANC beat back the efforts of a new local party in KwaZulu-Natal, the Abantu Batho Congress (ABC) in uMvoti (Greytown) and denied it a first seat in a close by-election. It will want to do so again, and prevent LAND from winning this ANC seat, and knock back the chance of giving them their first councillor in the province.  The DA and EFF are also on the ballot. 

Cape Winelands

Ward 9 (Ashton) in Langeberg. DA (60%) ANC (13%) LIP (7%) CI (5%) EFF (5%). Turnout (57%)

Ashton sits on the R60 regional road between Montagu and Robertson. Langeberg is a municipality in the Cape Winelands district which includes Robertson, Bonnievale and Montagu. The by-election is taking place after the DA terminated its councillor’s membership after he was convicted on charges of fraud. The DA has to win this by-election to retain outright control of Langeberg. If it loses this by-election it would need to either reach out to a local party, the Langeberg Independent Party (LIP) or the Congress of the People (COPE) to restore their control of Langeberg.

The 2019 provincial results in the ward showed the DA solidifying its support in this ward by winning 64% of the vote in the voting districts of Ward 9. The ANC is the biggest challenger to the ANC in this by-election. The EFF, independent candidate Johannes Kana, ICOSA and COPE complete the ballot for Ward 9. 

City of Cape Town

Ward 115 (Green Point City Centre) in Cape Town. DA (84%) ANC (7%) EFF (3%). Turnout (60%)

This is a sprawling ward, including Green Point, the Cape Town central business district, the Waterfront, Grand Parade, Woodstock, District Six and Salt River. 

The by-election was called after ward councillor Dave Bryant took up a seat in Parliament. This is a safe DA seat, although in 2019 the ANC almost doubled their support on the provincial ballot in this ward, winning 13% support here. The DA fell from 84% to 70% in 2019. The most competitive voting district is the area around the Cape Town Civic Centre. It will be interesting to see what transpires.  GOOD and Al-Jamah-ah will want to win over disgruntled DA and ANC supporters in this ward.  The EFF and Cape Town party, the Democratic Independent Party (DIP) are also contesting.  DM

Wayne Sussman is an elections analyst.

Local newspapers in Oudtshoorn, Die Hoorn and The Oudtshoorn Courant were helpful references in compiling this article.