Mpumalanga

Super Wednesday saw the EFF making inroads in Mpumalanga as it more than doubled its percentage support in two Bushbuckridge by-elections. No seats changed hands in Mpumalanga as the DA held on both their seats and the ANC retained the three seats it was defending. This time five by-elections are taking place, all concentrated in the Ehlanzeni district which includes the capital Nelspruit.

Overall, the ANC has an excellent opportunity to get an early festive season present in Mpumalanga.

Bushbuckridge

Bushbuckridge is north of Nelspruit and Hazyview. The ANC won 53 of 76 available seats in 2016. The Bushbuckridge Residents Association (BRA) came second with 14 seats. Things started going south for the BRA in 2017 when its leader Delta Mokoena was jailed for vigilantism. This was soon followed by its sole representative in the Mpumalanga legislature rejoining the ANC. The party then tried to broaden its appeal and renamed itself the Better Residents Association. The 2019 election results showed that local voters preferred the B in BRA standing for Bushbuckridge as it lost its sole seat in the legislature.

These by-elections are taking place after the BRA expelled three ward councillors. None of the former BRA ward councillors is contesting seats for another party. The BRA is not fielding candidates, conceding these prized ward seats without a fight.

Ward 16 (Acornhoek Arthur’s Seat) in Bushbuckridge: BRA 58%, ANC 37%, EFF 2%. Turnout 62%. (2016 election result)

Ward 16 is southwest of Acornhoek, on the R40 road linking Limpopo with Bushbuckridge. The BRA beat the ANC by 963 votes in 2016. However, the ANC flipped the script here in 2019, getting 60% of the vote in provincial ballots in the voting district making up this ward. The BRA’s percentage vote share halved as it got 29%.

The EFF struggled in 2016, then got 5% of the provincial ballot vote in 2019. The EFF will want a strong second place and hopes to attract the BRA voters who do not want to return to the ANC. The DA is the third party contesting.

Ward 18 (Acornhoek Green Valley) in Bushbuckridge: BRA 54%, ANC 43%,  EFF 2%. Turnout 59%.

This ward is in the centre of Acornhoek, on the Mpumalanga border with Limpopo and the R40 regional road. The BRA beat the ANC by 458 votes in 2016, but its support fell sharply in 2019, with the ANC beating it by close on 1,500 votes in the voting districts making up this ward on the provincial ballot. The ANC won every voting district in 2019 and is confident as it goes head to head with the EFF. The ANC candidate, Grinios Sebatane, hails from the BRA, but was too low on the BRA list in 2016 to make it on to the council.

Ward 32 (Zoeknog Casteel) in Bushbuckridge: BRA 47%, ANC 36%, APC 8%, EFF 7%. Turnout 56%.

Ward 32 is southwest of Casteel near the R40 road that links Casteel with Bushbuckridge.

The BRA beat the ANC by just under 400 votes in 2016, but saw its fortunes nosedive in 2019 as its percentage vote share in the ward fell to 14%. The ANC won every voting district on the provincial ballot in the ward in 2019, getting more than 60% of the vote, or 1,340 more votes than the BRA. The EFF goes head-to-head with the ANC and hopes for a big improvement in line with its growth in Bushbuckridge in November.

Nkomazi

The ANC won 54 of 65 seats in 2016. The municipality includes Malelane, Komatipoort and Jeppes Reef and covers the corner of the province where the Eswatini border touches the Mozambique border. The two by-elections are being held after councillors died.

Ward 5 (Siboshwa) in Nkomazi in Ehlanzeni in Mpumalanga: ANC 91%, EFF 7%. Turnout 59%.

Siboshwa is southeast of Malelane. It is on the regional road R571, which runs from the Eswatini border to Komatipoort. It is also near the Mozambique border.

The ANC will aim to clear 90% of the vote. The 2019 results saw small gains for the EFF and a slight reduction for the ANC. The EFF and the African Transformation Movement (ATM) will face off for second place.

Ward 15 (Mgobodi Mawewe) in Nkomazi in Ehlanzeni in Mpumalanga: ANC 76%, DA 17%, EFF 6%. Turnout 54%.

Ward 15 is on the Mananga border with Eswatini. The ANC won by a large margin in 2016, with the DA finishing second. On the 2019 provincial ballot, the DA fell to third place as the EFF showed small growth. The ANC grew in 2019 and will want another big win over the DA and the EFF.

KwaZulu-Natal

There is one by-election in the east coast province on 9 December — less frenetic than on Super Wednesday when the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) held firm in all three marginal seats it was defending and shocked in an apparently safe ANC seat in Nkandla. The ANC was able to win back a ward it lost to the National Freedom Party (NFP) in uMvoti (Greytown). The DA had strong victories in the three wards it was defending, but the party did have a slight reduction in percentage vote share in the Ramsgate by-election in Ray Nkonyeni.

Ward 66 (The Bluff) in eThekwini in KZN: DA 80%, ANC 13%. Turnout 62%.

The Bluff is a DA stronghold south of Durban city centre. It lost some ground on the provincial ballot in the ward in 2019. The Vryheids Front+ (VF+) is fielding the head of the Bluff Ratepayers Association as its candidate and will hope to make a splash. The ANC will aim for a strong second place after slightly undercooked returns in the two Umlazi by-elections in November. The EFF, the IFP and the Justice and Employment Party are also standing. DM

Wayne Sussman is an elections analyst.