Investors are betting a Biden presidency with a Republican-controlled Senate make a multitrillion-dollar stimulus package less likely, forcing the Federal Reserve to keep rates lower for longer. That helped lift Treasuries while weakening the dollar. As expectations for a Biden win strengthened, a measure of volatility in developing-nation currencies dropped to near the lowest since August.
“I was expecting a post-election rally in EM regardless of the outcome, but this is a little more than I would have thought,” said Greg Lesko, a portfolio manager at Deltec Asset Management in New York. “The dollar weakness ahead of what is likely to be a U.S. fiscal blowout helps.”
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MSCI’s emerging-market stock index climbed almost 2.6% to the highest since May 2018, erasing all its post-pandemic losses. The gauge was bolstered by stocks in China, Indonesia and South Africa.
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Developing-nation assets seesawed during Wednesday’s U.S. vote count as Biden’s tally initially fell short of opinion-poll projections and prospects of a sweeping Democrat win in both houses diminished, reducing optimism over a big stimulus package. Trump’s campaign said it’s suing in Pennsylvania and Michigan to halt vote counts that were trending toward Biden.
“Trump’s defeat is good for emerging markets and investors will start re-allocating cash to EM in a big way,” said Charles Robertson, a London-based analyst at Renaissance Capital. “This becomes a self-reinforcing cycle of EM FX appreciation giving good returns to dollar investors, which in turn attracts more money to EM and in turn pushes EM FX stronger.”
Below are some views from emerging-market investors and analysts on the vote outcome so far:
Watch the Fed
Regardless of the election outcome, the U.S. will probably opt for some additional fiscal stimulus and the Federal Reserve will remain extremely accommodative along with other major central banks, supporting emerging markets, said James Barrineau, global head of emerging-market debt strategy at Schroders, which oversees $649.6 billion.
Buy Latam Bonds
Investors should take advantage of steep curves and attractive yields by buying Latam USD BBB long bonds outright or through 10s30s flatteners, according to William Snead, a fixed income strategist at BBVA in New York.
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