Biden leads Trump narrowly in Florida on eve of election -Reuters/Ipsos

By Jason Lange

A week earlier, Reuters/Ipsos polls showed Trump and Biden in a statistical tie across the three states.

Reuters/Ipsos polled likely voters in six states - Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania - that will play critical roles in deciding whether Trump wins a second term in office or if Biden ousts him.

Below is a state-by-state look at Reuters/Ipsos findings, based on the online responses of likely voters:

FLORIDA (Oct. 27 - Nov. 1)

• Voting for Biden: 50%

• Voting for Trump: 46%

• A prior poll showed Biden leading Trump 49%-47%, effectively a tie because the margin was within the poll's credibility interval.

• 41% said they already had voted.

• 47% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 44% said Trump would be better.

• 53% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 42% said Biden would be better.

ARIZONA (Oct. 27 - Nov. 1):

• Voting for Biden: 49%

• Voting for Trump: 47%

• The two are statistically tied as the margin is within the survey's credibility interval.

• A prior poll also showed a statistically even race, with 48% for Biden and 46% for Trump.

• 49% said they already had voted.

• 49% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 41% said Trump would be better.

• 52% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 42% said Biden would be better.

NORTH CAROLINA (Oct. 27 - Nov. 1):

• Voting for Biden: 49%

• Voting for Trump: 48%

• Since the margin is within the poll's credibility interval, the race is statistically tied, as it was in the prior poll when Biden had 49% to Trump's 48%.

• 43% said they already had voted.

• 49% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 43% said Trump would be better.

• 51% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 43% said Biden would be better.

MICHIGAN (Oct. 27 - Nov. 1):

• Voting for Biden: 52%

• Voting for Trump: 42%

• Biden was up 52%-43% the prior week.

• 37% of adults said they already had voted.

• 52% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 40% said Trump would be better.

• 48% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 44% said Biden would be better.

WISCONSIN (Oct. 27 - Nov. 1):

• Voting for Biden: 53%

• Voting for Trump: 43%

• Biden was up 53%-44% the prior week.

• 41% of adults said they already had voted.

• 52% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 38% said Trump would be better.

• 47% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 45% said Biden would be better.

PENNSYLVANIA (Oct. 27 - Nov. 1):

• Voting for Biden: 51%

• Voting for Trump: 44%

• Biden was up 50%-45% the prior week.

• 25% of adults said they already had voted.

• 51% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 40% said Trump would be better.

• 48% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 46% said Biden would be better.

NOTES

The Reuters/Ipsos opinion polls are conducted online in all six states in English, as well as in Spanish in Arizona and Florida.

• In Florida, from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1, it gathered responses from 1,011 adults, including 670 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.

• In Arizona, from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1, it gathered responses from 989 adults, including 610 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 5 percentage points.

• In North Carolina, from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1, it gathered responses from 1,009 adults, including 707 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.

• In Michigan, from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1, it gathered responses from 1,007 adults, including 654 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.

• In Wisconsin, from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1, it gathered responses from 1,007 adults, including 696 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.

• In Pennsylvania, from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1, it gathered responses from 1,006 adults, including 673 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.

(Reporting by Jason Lange and Chris Kahn; Editing by Howard Goller)