US Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks at a drive-in rally in Atlanta, Georgia on 27 October 2020. (Photo: EPA-EFE / Curtis Compton / The Atlanta Journal-Constitution) The world watched Hillary Clinton go from hero to zero in 2016, despite winning the popular vote and leading in many polls. The Clinton campaign learnt a hard lesson of not just relying on polling data. Clinton’s loss also proved that nothing beats showing up if you want people to choose you.
Joe Biden is in a stronger position now than Clinton was then. At least one poll has Biden leading in the key states of Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida. These are the states that gave Trump the presidency in 2016 despite Clinton having the most overall popular votes.
Biden is aware that he needs Florida to win. Speaking at a drive-in rally in Broward County, Florida on Thursday 29 October he told supporters:
“This election is the most important one you’ve ever voted in – whether it’s your first or 10th. Ladies and gentlemen, the heart and soul of this country is at stake right here in Florida.”
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Both Biden and Trump have been “running” around the country making at least eye contact with voters – which is as close to shaking hands and kissing babies that you can get in the middle of a pandemic. While the pandemic is a major bugbear for Trump as he is broadly lambasted for his (mis) handling of it, it has given Biden an advantage.
On Sunday, “Uncle Joe”, as some voters call him, told a crowd in Philadelphia in a parking lot at the Sharon Baptist Church:
“Imagine where we’d be if this president just wore a mask instead of mocked it from the beginning, I can tell you this, and every major health expert agrees with me, we wouldn’t have nine million cases of Covid in this nation. We wouldn’t have over 230,000 dead, almost 9,000 here in Pennsylvania.”
Biden has kept on message around Covid-19, criticising Trump’s handling of the crisis at every opportunity, but he is also always seen with a mask, in stark contrast to Trump who almost never wears one.
Many voters are also looking back over the four years of Trump’s presidency and asking whether he has kept his promises, looking specifically at medical care, which is still up in the air as Trump keeps saying he will replace Obamacare – the Affordable Care Act – but he still has not delivered an alternative. The Trump administration is supporting a case in which the US Supreme Court is scheduled to hear arguments on 10 November. Depending on the ruling, that could be the end of the Affordable Care Act.
When listing failures, besides the handling of the coronavirus, which is top of the list, people are also looking at the famous “Wall” which is unfinished – and for all intents and purposes will remain so – while the policy of separating children from their parents at the border is on many people’s minds.
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