The resumption of supply from the North African country is an added headache for the OPEC+ alliance as it considers whether to proceed with a plan to restore more output in January. With coronavirus cases accelerating in many countries, the group faces a tough decision at its next policy meeting on Nov. 30-Dec. 1.

“We have supply coming back to the market, while there is still plenty of concern over demand, with the flaring up in Covid-19 cases in parts of Europe,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Bank NV in Singapore. With Libya coming back, the market is close to balance, but it will depend on demand assumptions, he said.

Brent’s six-month timespread was $2.08 a barrel in contango — where prompt prices are cheaper than later-dated ones — compared with $1.95 on Friday. The change in the market structure indicates concern about over-supply has increased slightly.

Iraq expects crude prices to remain at around $41 to $42 a barrel this year before rising to $45 in the first quarter of 2021, the state-run Al-Sabah newspaper reported, citing an interview with Oil Minister Ihsan Abdul Jabbar. The minister reiterated that Iraq, OPEC’s second-biggest oil producer, would continue to comply with the OPEC+ pact to curb output.

Drilling activity in the U.S., the world’s largest producer, is starting to pick up despite signs demand might not recover to pre-virus levels until 2022 or 2023. Active rigs targeting crude oil rose by 4 to 193 last week, according to Baker Hughes, an increase of 14 in the last three weeks.