Just over a decade ago, the face of the KwaZulu-Natal African National Congress political landscape started to change. A fresh clutch of cadres was coming to prominence: Men touted as bright, young political creatures who were eager and unencumbered by the more visible mistakes of the past.

They were energetic mobilisers who instilled just enough anxiety in the old guard to make younger cadres believe they had the sauce to change what needed to be changed. They were also well aware of the province’s immense power on the national ANC playing field, and the myriad opportunities that would blossom for the ambitious.

Prior to 2015, the ANC leadership in KwaZulu-Natal had changed hands in a mostly predictable and preordained fashion.

With the entry of the energetic and ambitious came the current KZN premier, Sihle Zikalala, and his close ally and friend Ricardo Mthembu, who for over a decade held political sway in the areas of Ballito and Stanger. There was also Zululand’s rising star, Thulani Mashaba.

Of the trio, only Zikalala remains today.

It was through their mobilising efforts – extreme grassroots campaigning – that they and their cohorts started to dislodge the old guard and their predictable choices.

In November 2015, the then-premier, Senzo Mchunu, was toppled at the provincial ANC conference. It was a nasty, messy and humiliating affair for Mchunu, as he watched adulation heaped on career politician Zikalala. And although the victory was overturned by the Pietermaritzburg High Court, the wound to Mchunu and his cohorts – and to governance in the province – was tangible. 

The rise of the cadres coincided with the galvanising of former president Jacob Zuma as near untouchable. Zuma was in his second terms as party and state president at the time. Dislodging Mchunu was a slog – but the gods of mobilisation allowed Mashaba to drum up support for Zikalala in Zululand, while Mthembu did the same in the KwaDukuza region.

In eThekwini, Zandile Gumede mobilised for Zikalala. Just months later, she was to become chairman of the ANC eThekwini region – the largest in the country – and currently one of the party’s problem children.

It has taken five years for that support to shift dramatically.

Mashaba died in a car crash in July 2015, which quickly became shrouded in conspiracy theories, one of them put forward by Zuma himself in an attempt to sway trust from Mchunu. This was also nasty and messy.

Last year, Gumede had to be removed as eThekwini mayor and as regional ANC head after being linked to one of the biggest graft scandals encountered in the metro. And just last week, Mthembu died of Covid-19.

Now that the period of mourning has passed, the political ramifications of Mthembu’s death are being deliberated. Several sources who spoke to Daily Maverick on condition of anonymity confirmed that Mthembu’s death significantly weakened Zikalala politically.

Mthembu was Zikalala’s trusted man in KwaDukuza, known as the ANC General Gizenga Mpanza Region. He was part of a cohort that lobbied Cyril Ramaphosa for Zikalala’s premiership.

“He negotiated for Zikalala, who in turn was indebted to Ricardo,” said KwaZulu-Natal political commentator Xolani Dube.

Another source with a deep understanding of KZN politics agreed that the virus had been “good” for status quo politics within the ANC. Four regions in the province were meant to hold their elective conferences during the period the country was in lockdown.

Dube, among others, confirmed that Mthembu was in line for an MEC position. Before the Covid crisis hit, a Cabinet reshuffle was expected in the province so that he could be accommodated.

“His death is a serious blow to Zikalala. It will have a direct effect on Zikalala’s political influence. Given Mthembu’s departure, others are likely to make a political move that could affect the status quo,” said Dube.

The nature of ANC politics in KwaZulu-Natal is a winner-takes-all approach. While there is talk of unity, a loss by any faction means losing access to resources and power. And much like the position of president of the country, finishing two terms as premier in KwaZulu-Natal is a rarity. The ANC has had five premiers since 2004. Prior to that, the IFP controlled the province.

“The Covid-19 pandemic has helped Zikalala in the short term, but the reality is the script is finished, with his next move being an upward demotion, into national office. He will likely also be a one-term premier,” said Dube.

Another source with a deep understanding of KZN politics agreed that the virus had been “good” for status quo politics within the ANC. Four regions in the province were meant to hold their elective conferences during the period the country was in lockdown.

The interim teams now running these regions are sure to provide Zikalala with the opportunity to pick leaders he believes to be fit for local government elections next year. And of course they will be able to propel the premier when needed. This is helpful in regions that have significant factional problems, such as eThekwini, Lower South Coast and Moses Mabhida. The immediate crisis to follow Mthembu’s death is likely to take place in his home region.

In May 2018, Mthembu was elected for his third successive term as chairperson of the General Gizenga Mpanza Region – the third-largest ANC region in the province. He had been mayor of KwaDukuza Municipality for eight years.

But after the 2019 national elections, he was moved to the KwaZulu-Natal Legislature and the ANC’s provincial executive committee. This move left a significant vacuum in KwaDukuza, which has yet to appoint a replacement mayor. Factional battles have resulted in thwarted attempts to vote in a new mayor.

The General Gizenga Mpanza Region was supposed to hold its elective conference in March, but the coronavirus lockdown derailed that.

Mthembu tried to keep both factions placated by establishing a “unity slate”, but this was rejected. The idea was to have the united factions vote in favour of Zikalala and himself at the 2021 provincial elective conference.

He was, however, able to convince the factions to work together in passing municipal budgets, and providing water and electricity to townships, among other administrative tasks. 

With Mthembu’s death, there is doubt that the factions will unite, and there is sure to be an immediate impact in the region unless the party can stabilise itself. Should it fail, as has been well documented in other regions, the municipality could find itself in a state of paralysis and lose its lustre as one of the ANC’s shining lights  – it has been the recipient of multiple unqualified audits year on year.

At Mthembu’s funeral, Zikalala raised the issue in an uncharacteristically emotional speech – so much so that one of his media liaison officers asked journalists afterwards via an official WhatsApp group not to publish from the eulogy given on the actual day. 

“Comrade Ricardo believed in unity of the movement, unity must always be a priority for each and every one, the only way to honour comrade Ricardo is to unite the region and reclaim activism and let the ANC be present throughout this region,” said the premier in his prepared statement. 

As the governing party grapples with its schisms, its political killings, its inability to control the provincial taxi industry, numerous corruption scandals, and now Covid-19, opposition parties are licking their chops at what they think can be achieved. 

The Democratic Alliance (DA) caucus leader in the KwaDukuza Municipality, Madhun Singh, told Daily Maverick: 

“The ANC is in a weak position due to their factional battles. Between the opposition parties, we only need another eight seats to be able to lead through a coalition, and we intend to work really hard to achieve such an outcome.” DM