There is much evidence to suggest we could move into lockdown Level 3 by the end of this week. There is also data showing that trust in government has been eroded during the past three weeks. 

At the same time, the number of coronavirus cases reported each day is going up dramatically and it appears we are back “on the curve”. 

We now run the risk of the government losing the respect of people just as the number of those getting sick and dying is about to increase wildly. However, there are ways in which government can regain legitimacy, and thus have citizens adhering to the lockdown regulations.

On Monday morning two senior officials said publicly that they believe we may well be on Level 3 by the end of this week.

The first was the acting health director-general, Dr Anban Pillay. He said on SAfm that while those in charge were still evaluating the risks and the situation, it was possible that the move could happen this week. Then, KwaZulu-Natal Premier Sihle Zikalala said on Sunday that his province was ready to move to Level 3. He agreed that the move could happen this week.

This suggests that while President Cyril Ramaphosa had said that the shift would be by the end of the month, it could in fact happen sooner than that.

Deciding what should happen next is surely among the most difficult of governance decisions. No president or political party wants to open too early and risk the health of hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of people. No president or political party wants to open too late and have millions more people without jobs in a ruined economy. And in the middle of that is the fact that during the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918, those cities in the US that were under a lockdown for longer, in fact, grew their economies more quickly in the years afterwards, because their populations were less harmed by the disease.

However, one of the worst possible outcomes would be a situation in which government loses all legitimacy and citizens rebel against any form of lockdown or other public health interventions – more people would die, while respect for the central authority would not exist. 

While we are still some distance from that happening, there are signs that the government is losing legitimacy.

There has been much public outrage at the death of Collins Khosa, allegedly beaten to death by SANDF soldiers in Alexandra. Surveys show that people are still smoking despite the ban on tobacco sales, and there has been scorn at the convoluted list of clothing products that can now be sold.

However, it is the willingness of people to break the regulations that is really the problem, a clear sign that government is losing legitimacy. Any smoker who wants to smoke can find cigarettes. Stories abound about clandestine deliveries of alcohol to homes. People are being driven to buy and sell addictive products, to break the law.

Government legitimacy can be restored by dealing properly and honestly with the problems and missteps that have been made.

Several events have led to public anger at the lockdown. If they can be dealt with, some of this anger will be assuaged.

First is the way in which the SANDF has behaved. There has been no proper public apology from the military about the brutal killing of Collins Khosa. The fact that a high court judge had to order the suspension of the soldiers believed to be involved in his death is scandalous. It would be a good start for the military to publicly say that those soldiers have been suspended, and to unequivocally apologise. This would require no talk about how people “mustn’t provoke” soldiers. It would also require an admission that opposing the application in the Khosa case was wrong.

Then there are the small regulations that are eroding government legitimacy, precisely because they are small, and appear nonsensical.

The obvious example is the list of clothing that can be bought. While it was the result of a process after clothing manufacturers and retailers wanted an explicit list of products that can be sold, all these days later it still looks ridiculous. To make buying a T-shirt illegal because of a virus is indefensible.

The exercise window is another example. It makes no sense to restrict people to three hours a day. The president promised that this would change even under Level 4. 

The longer these regulations remain on the books, the weaker the president looks, the lesser his legitimacy, and the more questions there will be about what is really happening in the Cabinet and the National Coronavirus Command Council. 

In-fighting, and perceptions of it, always leads to a loss of legitimacy.

The clothing and exercise regulations were designed to make it easier for the government, the police and the SANDF to enforce. They were not designed to help citizens. When the driving urge is to control or limit, and not to ensure a safe way of doing things, this does no good for a long-term appreciation of the government’s positions and decisions.

For the government to regain legitimacy, it has to convince citizens that it is trying to make their lives as safe and as easy as possible. It cannot afford to give the impression that the driving ambition is to control them.

At the same time, perhaps the biggest threat to the government’s legitimacy is the court cases challenging it. President Cyril Ramaphosa addressed these in his weekly letter on Monday. If the government loses these cases it will give many citizens enough impetus to disregard the regulations.

It may be safer and wiser for the government to remove these issues from the courts. Moving to Level 3 could immediately remove the cases relating to the bans on alcohol and tobacco. It would also remove some of the sting from the DA’s claim that the exercise window regulation is legally irrational.

However, it should not be forgotten that many other democratic governments are in the same position. Any limitation on freedoms is controversial and will reverberate in huge arguments about what is rational and what is not. So, loosening the lockdown is going to be controversial too.

The problem underlying the coronavirus crisis is a lack of data; not many countries have a real understanding of the actual number of infections and the spread of the virus. That is what makes this such a difficult set of governance problems. What might look like a well-informed set of decisions right now could easily look like the wrong decision in just a month’s time. But decisions must be made. 

Going to Level 3 would, at least in the near future, release the pressure build-up that the government can scarcely afford right now. DM