In recent years, South Africa has attracted more than 10 million foreign tourists each year and we recently set a target of raising this to 21 million by 2030.

But the dramatic onset of Covid-19 means it is highly unlikely that we will get back to where we were anytime soon, in terms of international tourist numbers or expenditure. It seems reasonable to assume that border closures will remain for some time. Given that different countries will experience the pandemic at different speeds and intensities, we are also unlikely to see unilaterally relaxed travel regimes. It’s possible a lack of airlift capacity from tourist markets might compound this and further restrict potential travel to our shores.

What about tourist demand?

Fear and anxiety feel pervasive right now. While shocks and vulnerabilities are sadly not new for marginalised people the world over, they are being experienced by the global middle class, who have until now been relatively unaffected. This group is likely to be more cautious about travel once the pandemic is better controlled.

After Covid-19, many would-be leisure tourists may also have less ability to travel, at least in the short term, as a result of less disposable income and little paid leave (particularly in instances where companies have forced employees to take their annual leave during lockdown periods). Those who have employment may simply want to get back to a more predictable office and work environment.

Corporate travel will also not bounce back quickly. Even for those businesses that survive, re-opening to struggling economies, and having become accustomed to communicating digitally, means that travel patterns are unlikely to return to pre-Covid-19 levels for some time, if at all.

Given all of this, where are our visitor markets likely to come from and what sort of experiences might they be looking for?

Recreation for residents 

The local resident base will be what brings our restaurants, attractions and leisure experiences back to life, long before domestic or foreign visitors return in volume. As South Africans, our first steps will be into local spaces: back onto the streets where we live, to parks, beaches and other open-air public spaces that are safe, and known to us.

To date, there’s been somewhat of an artificial divide between planning for recreation and planning for tourism. The crisis provides an opportunity to think very differently about local residents as our primary visitor markets. This means pushing for the development of dynamic, safe, inclusive and accessible public spaces for recreation, particularly in underserved communities.

For instance, as part of the recovery plan for tourism, why not launch an ambitious multi-sectoral programme centred on urban rivers as sites for recreation (and, in future, tourism)? This could involve the clearing, cleaning, opening up and community-led development of rivers in our cities, starting with nodes in poorer areas.

Well-established tourist attractions will also need to re-orient themselves to local residents. Creative strategies will be needed to build local participation and support, addressing issues such as relevance, pricing and transport.

Domestic travel to friends and relatives 

For those South Africans who have the means and available time, reconnecting with friends and relatives will be high on the priority list. Short holiday trips may also be popular, either as self-drive trips or as packages to known destinations for rest and relaxation.

Might we travel to meet up with new digital connections in the real world? Lockdown has seen new relationships being formed across geographic communities and between organisations, and firms that are collaborating for the first time. The question for the travel and tourism sector might be to address when, and how these virtual communities find each other in the physical world. Bringing people together, accommodating them, extending hospitality is the work of the tourism sector.

Attracting foreign ‘repeaters’ back again

The extent to which we can draw foreign tourists to South Africa will depend greatly on how safe South Africa is considered to be in terms of its management of Covid-19 in addition to other safety considerations and the logistics of accessibility (air and road transport, visas, etc.). Once we’re “cleared” for foreign tourists, it’s likely the segment most inclined to visit us will be repeat travellers. These tourists will be able to anticipate the travel experience, as they already have first-hand knowledge of the country.

South Africa has a high rate of repeat travel: In 2018, 82% of all foreign tourists were repeat tourists. Our high repeater rate bodes well for a recovery of some tourist volume. It also means that we will need to use engagement and marketing strategies that work through South Africans to reach their networks, as well as employ customer relationship management strategies to market directly to potential repeat tourists. All this as we simultaneously identify other markets and market segments that have the potential to grow in the medium to longer term.

Easing travel for cross-border traders 

Within the repeater market, it’s important to not overlook travel from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. SADC travellers are the bulk of our tourists – close to 7.3 million of the total of 10.3 million tourists in 2018.

Shopping for business and personal items is an important motivator of travel to South Africa from the region. Recent research indicates that cross-border traders spend as much as R10-billion in Johannesburg each year (see here). Bounceking this market worthy of far more attention than it currently receives. The value chain supporting this travel segment is different from the leisure travel value chain, but is also important for the economy, particularly for retail in border towns and Johannesburg, public transport and long-distance coach operators, and budget accommodation establishments.

A preference for familiarity and predictability 

We’re likely to have pent-up demand for our favourite experiences. This might be meeting friends for drinks or a meal, or to watch sports. Many people will want to get back to the outdoors, to reconnect with nature after being locked down. For this reason, rural tourism, farm tourism, activity-based tourism and wide-open spaces may be popular. Creative tourism experiences may also be in demand, particularly for smaller social groups seeking to reconnect with each other over food, music and art, and so on.

Will we avoid large, impersonal spaces, where we can’t readily assess or manage risk? Or will highly organised, sanitised places, where well-known brands operate, and strong assurances are made about hygiene and safety practices, be preferred to less formal ones? It’s not clear. Either way, we’ll choose those experiences we can anticipate (and therefore where we feel we can manage any potential risk).

Post-lockdown storytelling and experience-making

It’s clear from the explosion in online creative collaboration how important art, music, comedy, food, written word and dance are for our emotional sustenance. Now we need to figure out how to package and market this creativity as part of the country’s tourism offering.

One possible approach can be found in the new Rupert Social Impact Art prize which links art, nature and community. By way of example, the 2020 winner, PLANTed, is a project that will celebrate the plant life of Graaff-Reinet, and engage local groups in the production and presentation of a central built structure where artists, designers and the local community can exhibit (see www.socialimpactartsprize.org. for more).

In conclusion, here are some of the actions to consider for the short-term:

1. Alignment of planning, and budgeting for recreation and tourism, and more explicit linking of these to urban and spatial planning.
2. Development of short-trip offerings for domestic travel to friends and relatives, and for self-drive leisure travel.
3. Co-ordination of databases and insights for collaborative marketing to repeat foreign tourists.
4. Greater facilitation of the cross-border trader experience.
5. Packaging of experiences that address tourists’ likely safety and hygiene concerns.
6. Incentivisation of partnerships between the creative and tourism sectors to develop new experiences with a strong sense of place. BM

Kate Rivett-Carnac is a tourism and green economy researcher and strategist with a masters degree in sustainable development planning and management. She has more than 20 years of experience during which she has worked as a consultant within national government, at a development finance institution and as a special advisor to a national minister. She currently provides independent advisory services and also serves as a non-executive director of South African Tourism. She writes in her personal capacity and the views are her own.