A monitor displays stock market information on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., on Thursday, March 12, 2020. The rout in global stocks deepened as investors showed a lack of faith in the U.S. and European policy responses to the worsening spread of the coronavirus. The dollar surged. Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg 
The lack of inflation nowadays means that in real terms, Trump still comes out ahead of Carter, who lost his re-election bid to Ronald Reagan. But by any measure he’s now well behind the 63% climb in Barack Obama’s second term. That Obama mark is slightly less than the total return for Trump when Wall Street hit a record high on Feb. 19.
Trump Bump Goes Bust With Small Caps Erasing Post-Election Gain
Equities may still rebound by election day on Nov. 3 and many strategists, at least before Thursday’s crash on Wall Street, were predicting a recovery once the coronavirus peaks, potentially in the second quarter. But the sudden collapse in shares underlines the communications challenge for Trump, who had repeatedly touted the gains since his election as a key achievement for his administration.
| President | Total Return |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 24% |
| Obama II | 63% |
| Barack Obama I | 55% |
| Bush II | -3.9% |
| George W. Bush I | -12% |
| Clinton II | 113% |
| Bill Clinton I | 89% |
| George H.W. Bush | 74% |
| Reagan II | 87% |
| Ronald Reagan I | 59% |
| Jimmy Carter | 56% |
| Nixon II | 6.3% |
| Richard Nixon I | 26% |
| Average | 48% |
| Note: measured from election day to election day, except for George W. Bush’s first term, which is measured from the Supreme Court decision that secured his 2000 win. | |
Bear Market Signals Over 80% Chance of Recession Hitting U.S.
To-be-sure, no other modern U.S. leader has faced an event quite like a global health pandemic. Its spread is causing an unprecedented shock to economies all over the world as policymakers grapple with ways to shield their populations from the deadly virus.
The S&P 500 crashed into a bear market on Thursday after Trump’s Oval Office address the evening before failed to spur confidence that the administration will avert the first recession since the global financial crisis. Trump stopped short of a broad-brush fiscal package.
And his assurance that “no nation is more prepared” for the coronavirus conflicted with the assessment the next day from the leading U.S. infectious-disease official that America’s testing system is failing.
“The longer the social-distancing without offsetting stimulus continues, the lower the odds of Trump winning the election will go,” Evercore ISI strategists including Dennis DeBusschere wrote in a note Thursday.