South Africa

BY-ELECTIONS

ANC wins solid majority in Mamusa in North West, FF+ win ward off DA

Completed ballots sit on a table at a polling station in Alexandra, Johannesburg, South Africa, 08 May 2019. (EPA-EFE/Yeshiel Panchia)

The African National Congress retained all ward seats and their outright majority in the Mamusa by-elections. The Economic Freedom Fighters exhibited strong growth, while the Freedom Front Plus easily won a ward off the Democratic Alliance.

The council in Mamusa, North West, was dissolved in late October due to maladministration and poor service delivery. Voters in the Mamusa by-elections received two ballots, a ward ballot and a proportional representation (PR) ballot.

Mamusa is part of the Ruth Mompati District in the North West province. Its principal town is the farming town of Schweizer-Reneke. Most voters reside in the Ipegeleng next to Schweizer-Reneke. Other settlements in the ward are Amalia, Migdol and Glaudina. There are also pockets of voters on the farms in the area.

Mamusa is solid ANC territory. It is one of 5 North West municipalities where the ANC received over 70% of the vote on the provincial ballot in the general elections in May 2019. In 2016 the ANC won 8 of the 9 wards in the municipality and won a total of 11 out of the 18 seats. The Forum 4 Service Delivery (F4SD), a North West party, were the official opposition between 2016 and 2020. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) won 2 seats here in 2016. The DA were the winners in the Schweizer-Reneke ward-Ward 9, winning a seat on the council. The VF+ also won a seat on the council.

Ward 1 (Migdol Glaudina) ANC 49% (62%) EFF 44% (33%) FF 3% (2%) DA 2% (3%) F4SD 1% ATM 1% AIC 1%

Migdol is a small village on the R506 road linking Schweizer-Reneke with Delareyville, while Glaudina lies between the R506 road and the R504 road linking Schweizer-Reneke with Wolmaransstad.

This was the ward where the EFF performed best in 2016 and they showed good growth again in this ward to give the ANC a real run for their money, as the ANC held onto Ward 1 by 85 votes. The EFF were able to win the Migdol voting district off the ANC as they garnered 46 more votes than the ANC. The ANC won the smaller Glaudina voting district, but were assisted by the very high Turn-out in Glaudina (71%) as they got 121 more votes than the EFF.

The FF+ beat the DA for third place. Turn-out 62% (69%)

Ward 2 (Ipegeleng) ANC 74% (53%) EFF 19% (10%) Independent-Dire 4% DA 1% (1%) AIC 1%

The ANC had their best showing in the by-elections in Ward 2. They had a significant increase in their percentage vote share and were bigger beneficiaries of former F4SD voters here, than the EFF. The ANC percentage vote share at Kolong Primary School voting station went up from 56% in 2016 to an impressive 77%. The F4SD got 34% of the vote in the ward in 2016. In the by-election they could not even register 1% of the vote.

This was the only ward where an independent candidate contested. They came third with 4% of the vote.

Turn-out 62% (69%)

Ward 3 (Amalia Molatswaneng) ANC 59% (53%) EFF 33% (11%) AIC 3% DA 2% (4%) F4SD 1% F4SD (22%) FF 1% (1%)

Amalia is on the R504 road, the road which links Schweizer-Reneke with Pudimoe. It is a small town. The ward also includes the small township of Molatswaneng.

Support for F4SD plummeted in this ward as the EFF and the ANC were the main beneficiaries of former F4SD voters. The EFF were able to triple their support in this ward, while the ANC came close to getting 60% of the vote. The African Independent Congress (AIC) finished third, while the DA lost ground.

The EFF got 40% of the vote at the small Nooitgedacht Farm polling station, up from the 8% the received in 2016. The ANC had good growth at the largest voting district in the ward, the Amalia Primary School. Their vote share went from 52% to 62%.

Turn-out 57% (62%).

Ward 4 (Ipegeleng) ANC 66% (80%) EFF 29% (14%) ATM 2% AIC 2% DA 1% (2%)

Ipegeleng is the most vote rich part of Mamusa. Ward 4 is where the ANC performed the best in 2016, getting 80% of the vote.

The EFF made good inroads in this ward, more than doubling their support, as the ANC slipped to below 2/3rds of the vote share in the ward. The EFF got 32% of the vote at the African Church voting district, after getting 15% there in 2016. In contrast, the ANC vote share fell to 63% from 80% in 2016.

Turn-out was a high 57% (56%)

Ward 5 (Ipegeleng Amalia) ANC 52% (69%) EFF 34% (11%) FF 4% (2%) AIC 3% F4SD 3% (13%) DA 2% (3%) ATM 1%

The majority of the wards voters are found in Ipegeleng, but the ward also includes a voting station in Amalia, and a voting station on a farm. Ward 5 was the only ward where the incumbent ward councillor ran again.

The EFF more than tripled their percentage vote share as they finished a strong second in this ward. They ate into the ANC’s support here, and drew on disillusioned F4SD voters. The EFF got 41% of the vote in the largest voting district in the ward in Ipegeleng. The ANC had to rely on another Ipegeleng voting district to pull away from the EFF. They got a solid 76% of the vote at the Mamusa High School voting station.

The FF+ were able to win the two smaller voting districts in the ward. This helped them to finish third. The F4SD fell from second place in the ward to fifth place.

Turn-out 56% (59%)

Ward 6 (Ipegeleng ANC 62% (68%) EFF 27% (8%) F4SD 4% (20%) ATM 4% DA 3% (1%) AIC 1%

The ANC lost more ground to the EFF in another ward in Ipegeleng. The EFF were again able to win over some ANC voters and many F4SD voters as they finished well ahead of the rest of the opposition parties for second place. At the Ikgomotseng Primary School voting district, the EFF went from 10% of the vote to 31% of the vote. It was another poor result for the F4SD. The ATM came a credible fourth, while the DA had a slither of hope as their percentage vote share increased slightly.

Turn-out 53% (56%)

Ward 7 (Ipegeleng Mornay) ANC 57% (52%) EFF 32% (9%) F4SD 4% (34%) ATM 4% AIC 2% FF 1% (1%) DA 1% (2%)

The overwhelming number of voters in this ward reside in Ipegeleng, but there is one small voting district centred around the farm of Mornay. It is a traditional FF+ stronghold.

The ANC were able to increase their percentage vote share in the ward as both the ANC and the EFF benefited from the F4SD haemorrhaging the bulk of their support in the ward. The EFF more than tripled their support as they finished second. The F4SD were still able to pip the African Transformation Movement (ATM) for third place. The FF+ again won in Mornay, with the DA’s poor returns at Mornay relegating it to last place in Ward 7.

Turn-out 57% (57%)

Ward 8 (Ipegeleng) ANC 61% (76%) EFF 35% (15%) F4SD 1% (6%) ATM 1% AIC 1% DA 1% (1%)

This was the ward where the ANC did second best in 2016. The EFF had made strong inroads in this ward as they more than doubled their support. At Reabetswe Primary School, the EFF got 43% of the vote, up from 18% in 2016. The ANC’s percentage vote share here fell from 73% to 54%.

Turn-out 55% (57%)

Ward 9 (Schweizer-Reneke Mimosa) FF+ 51% (27%) ANC 26% (21%) DA 14% (41%) EFF 7% (3%) AIC 1%

Ward 9 was the only ward in Mamusa not won by the ANC in 2016. The bulk of the voters are situated in the town of Schweizer-Reneke. The second-largest pool of voters are centred around the farm of Mimosa. The ANC and EFF both rely on turn-out at the Doornplaat and Graspan farms.

The DA won a tough three-horse race here in 2016, but finished well off the pace when one considers the voting districts which make up the ward on the provincial ballot in May 2019. The FF+ have now won 3 wards off the DA in the North West since the elections in May. Schweizer-Reneke joins Stilfontein (Matlosana) and Miederpark in Potchefstroom (JB Marks) as wards with new FF+ councillors. This was always going to be prime pick up opportunity for the FF+. The DA ran an intensive campaign trying to reconnect with voters lost to the party in May (and before that going back to the Elana Barkhuizen first day of class WhatsApp photo of her class at Laerskool Schweizer-Reneke). The DA failed miserably as the departure from the DA continued in Schweizer-Reneke. The FF+ had a comfortable win, and did not give the ANC a sniff of an opportunity in this ward.

The FF+ got 440 more votes than the DA at the voting station in the town of Schweizer-Reneke. In 2016 the DA beat them by 129 votes in the district. At Mimosa, the VF+ beat the DA by 109 votes, in 2016 the DA got 58 more votes than the VF+. These are staggering swings, even with the signs being there in May 2019.

The EFF won the small Doornplaat Farm voting district off the ANC. They got 9 votes more than the ANC after finishing third in the district, and 46 votes behind the ANC in 2016. The ANC grew their vote share in the ward by getting some F4SD voters back to them.

Turn-out 62% (60%)

 

New Mamusa Seat Allocation

ANC 10 (11) EFF 5 (2) FF+ 1 (1) DA 1 (1) AIC 1 (0) – Total 18

The ANC retains outright control of Mamusa. They will now hope that they do a better job at governing the municipality. The EFF made a big statement in these by-elections and more than doubled their seats in the Mamusa council. They are now the official opposition. The former official opposition the F4SD were wiped out and lost all 3 seats. Despite the impressive win in Ward 9, the FF+ was unable to win an additional seat on the council. Despite the DA’s low returns, they held onto their one seat on the council. The AIC will now serve on the Mamusa council for the first time.

A breakthrough for the party from Matatiele in the Eastern Cape.

There was another by-election in the North West.

Ward 16 (Welgeval) in Moses Kotane ANC 76% (74%) EFF 24% (22%)

The ward is next to the Pilanesberg Park, on the R510 road which links Rustenburg with Thabazimbi in Limpopo.

Moses Kotane is part of the Bojanala Platinum District in the far north of the North West. Its seat of government is Mogwase.

The ANC had a comfortable hold here, winning over three quarters of the vote in this safe ANC seat.

Turn-out 42% (52%)

The next round of by-elections will be on the 5th of February when the ANC will be defending 3 seats. These include 2 wards in the Phokwane municipality in the Northern Cape, and a seat in Motherwell in Nelson Mandela Bay. DM

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