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Oil Snaps Four-Day Drop as Trump Dials Down Trade War Rhetoric

Oil recouped some lost ground after U.S. President Donald Trump struck a more conciliatory tone on the trade war with China.
Bloomberg
SAUDI ARAMCO EXCLUSIVE Signs for kerosene and crude oil sit on pipes used for landing and unloading crude and refined oil at the North Pier Terminal, operated by Saudi Aramco, in Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia, on Monday, Oct. 1, 2018. Saudi Aramco aims to become a global refiner and chemical maker, seeking to profit from parts of the oil industry where demand is growing the fastest while also underpinning the kingdom’s economic diversification. Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg

Oil Futures in New York were up as much as 0.8% after falling 4.8% over the previous four sessions. Trump praised comments from China’s Vice Premier Liu He, Beijing’s top trade negotiator, on his willingness to find a solution to the dispute. He also signaled he was open to meet with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and perhaps ease restrictions on the Islamic Republic.

Oil has fallen this month as the trade war worsened

Oil is still down around 8% this month as concerns over global trade weigh on the demand outlook. While Trump was less combative, he gave no indication he would change tactics that have yielded little progress after more than two years of steady escalation. Meanwhile, analysts pointed to the difficulties the U.S. and Iran would face in reaching a political rapprochement.

“Oil continues to respond to the trade feud between Washington and Beijing,” said Sungchil Will Yun, a commodities analyst at HI Investment & Futures Corp. in Seoul. “What’s different now is that the market has grown less sensitive towards Trump’s conciliatory comments,” suggesting investors aren’t expecting a quick resolution to the conflict, he said.

West Texas Intermediate crude for October delivery rose 37 cents, or 0.7%, to $54.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 11:14 a.m. in Singapore after advancing as much as 45 cents earlier. The contract settled 1% lower at $53.64 on Monday.

Brent for October settlement climbed 35 cents, or 0.6%, to $59.05 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange. It retreated 1.1% to $58.70 on Monday. The global benchmark crude traded at a premium of $5.04 to WTI.

Trump said Monday that China had “called our trade people and said let’s get back to the table.” A spokesman for China’s foreign ministry wasn’t able to immediately confirm the details of the phone calls. Later, Hu Xijin, the politically connected editor-in-chief of China’s Global Times newspaper, said in a tweet that top trade negotiators hadn’t spoken by phone in recent days and that Trump was exaggerating the significance of the trade contacts.

The U.S. president said he’d meet Iran’s Rouhani “if the circumstances were correct or were right” to discuss their standoff over the 2015 nuclear deal. However, face-to-face talks with Tehran appear more politically fraught than with North Korea and Trump didn’t offer more details or acknowledge the political risks he’d face in trying to reach an accord.

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