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Modi Poised to Storm Back to Power in India, Exit Polls Show

By Bloomberg 20 May 2019
Caption
Top Bhartya Janta party (BJP) leader and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaks to the media after filing his election nominations in Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, India, 26 April 2019. Prime Minister Narendra Modi filed his election nomination on 26 April, from the Varanasi constituency for the parliamentary or general elections for India's 545-member lower house of parliament, or Lok Sabha, that is held every five years. EPA-EFE/PRABHAT KUMAR VERMA

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling coalition is poised for victory in India’s general elections, exit polls showed, giving it another five years running the world’s fastest-growing major economy despite a jobs crisis and struggling rural sector.

Read More: Rupee Rallies With Bonds as Polls Show Modi Win: Inside India

The polls showed his Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance will win between 267 and 350 seats in India’s 543-seat parliament, with most well above the 272-seat majority mark. The opposition Congress-led United Progressive Alliance coalition will win an estimated 82-132 seats, the polls forecast. Votes will be counted on May 23.

For Modi, victory would allow him to push forward an agenda that includes a boost in infrastructure spending, support for farmers and measures that appeal to Hindu nationalists. India’s markets rallied. The benchmark stock index the S&P BSE Sensex jumped 3.8% to a new record on Monday, its second in little over a month. A gauge of stock-market volatility slumped, the rupee rose the most since December and the yield on benchmark 2029 bonds slid eight basis points.

“If these predictions hold, the BJP will benefit in a big way in that it will have a strong electoral mandate and ample policy space to once again tackle the economic reform plan that it struggled with during its previous term,” said Michael Kugelman, senior associate for South Asia at the Washington, D.C.-based Woodrow Wilson Center. “But the pressure will be on to get it right this time around.”

Exit Polls BJP-led coalition Congress-led alliance Others Today’s Chanakya 350 95 97 Republic TV-C Voter 287 128 127 Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat 305 124 113 Times Now-VMR 306 132 104 News Nation 286 122 134 ABP News – Nielsen 267 127 148 CNN News 18 – Ipsos 336 82 124
The polls, released Sunday evening, should reassure investors who pulled back in recent weeks amid worries that the opposition would pull off an upset in a nation that has seen election surprises in the past.

Read a Bloomberg Opinion piece on what a second term for Modi means for investors

“The exit poll results will put to rest any concerns about the present government not coming back,” said Paresh Nayar, Mumbai-based head of currency and money markets at FirstRand Ltd., adding that India’s stock, rupee and bond markets will likely gain Monday.

The polls were released after the last of India’s 900 million registered voters cast ballots in a grueling six-week-long election that started on April 11. They have a reputation for being notoriously inaccurate: They wrongly estimated the BJP would win reelection in 2004 and significantly underestimated the scale of the Congress-led coalition victory in 2009. However, most accurately predicted Modi’s landslide win in 2014.

Read more: Has Modi Really Changed India?

Congress party spokesman Sanjay Jha said on Twitter the exit poll results were “almost laughable,” suggesting many voters were too afraid to tell pollsters their real choice in such “an ugly polarized election.”

In the 2014 general election, the BJP won 282 seats on its own, enough to form a government with the first single-party majority in 30 years. Although the ruling NDA coalition has lost some allies, it had a comfortable majority of 339 before voting began.

The Congress party, which has ruled India for most of its independent history, stumbled to its worst-ever election result in that contest, winning just 44 seats and forming an alliance that is now 66 seats strong.

The focus will now turn to whether Modi can kick-start consumer spending, alleviate farm distress and create employment opportunities, said Ajay Bodke, the chief executive officer of portfolio management services at Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt.

“Markets will heave a big sigh of relief as it favors continuity and familiarity in terms of roll-out of policies,” Bodke said. DM

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