The ANC has avoided entering into coalition discussions in Gauteng after winning 50.19% in the most contested province in the 2019 elections in a tense race that was difficult to call until the final voting districts were counted.

The IEC finalised the provincial results on Saturday afternoon. The DA came in second place in the province, winning 27.45%, followed by the EFF with 14.69%.

Looking at the numbers shortly before they were finalised, Intellidex and Daily Maverick analyst Peter Attard Montalto said the ANC would take 37 seats in the provincial legislature.

The Gauteng Provincial Legislature has 73 seats, giving the ANC a one-seat majority. The ANC and DA will each lose three seats. The EFF will gain three seats, the Freedom Front plus will get an extra two and ACDP one.

The DA will have 20 seats, the EFF 11, and Freedom Front Plus three. The IFP will keep its one seat and ACDP, which wasn’t elected to the legislature in 2014, will take one seat.

In the 2016 local government elections, the ANC fell under 50% in Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni and opposition parties hoped they could wrest control of the province by forming a coalition government after the 2019 elections.

The EFF has increased its share of the vote in the province from 10.3% in 2014 to 14.69%. The DA dropped from 30.78% in 2014 to 27.45%, a disappointing result for the party that invested significantly in growing its support in Gauteng.

The ANC’s share of the provincial vote dropped from 53.59% in 2014 and its results in Gauteng were its second-worst of any province except for Western Cape.

Gauteng had the highest turnout rate of any province at over 68.28%. The national turnout rate was 65.99%.

In a brief scare, the ANC dropped under 50% on Thursday as votes continued to be captured but it received a boost after results from its traditional strongholds in areas like Soweto, Soshanguve and Katlehong were counted.

Montalto calculated that the ANC might have been able to win only 49.77% and still keep its majority with 37 seats in the provincial legislature.

If the ANC only won 36 seats, it would likely have had to win over the EFF or the IFP for support as the DA and Freedom Front Plus have shown they are reluctant to enter into agreements with the ANC.

Alternatively, the DA may have been able to form a provincial government if it won the support of the EFF, Freedom Front Plus, IFP and ACDP, all of which it has in Johannesburg and Tshwane.

The ANC has avoided that scenario and can breathe a sigh of relief. Although the respite may only be brief as the 2019 results show the party has continued to lose support in Gauteng in every provincial election since 2004. DM