The protracted crisis in Venezuela could be coming to a head, with violent clashes between government and opposition forces and claims by opposition leader Juan Guaidó that the military has at last begun to join the mass protests against the Nicolas Maduro regime.

If this proves true, it could be the turning point in ousting Maduro, who has presided over the implosion of the economy and a mass exodus of Venezuelans.

Looming over the increasingly violent confrontation of opposing domestic political forces in Caracas is the fear of a military clash between the US and Russian superpowers. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo this week refused to rule out military intervention to back up National Assembly leader Guaidó, whom the US and many other Western and South American countries have recognised as the legitimate leader of Venezuela.

But Russia has already moved small numbers of troops and larger quantities of military equipment to Venezuela. Though Moscow insists the troops are there purely for “consultation” and not for operational purposes, Washington clearly suspects Russia is preparing to bolster Maduro against the Guaidó-led uprising and to deter any US military intervention.

Pompeo told CNN on Wednesday that the Russians “gotta go” and President Donald Trump’s hawkish national security adviser John Bolton added that Pompeo intended speaking to his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov to warn him that “this is our hemisphere. It’s not where the Russians ought to be interfering”.

The critical question now is whether Maduro believes the US is serious in its threats to intervene militarily if he arrests Guaidó or if he thinks Washington is really bluffing and will then call its bluff.

The Stratfor risk analysis company believes that Guaidó’s campaign to topple Maduro, which began in January when he declared himself the real president, had begun waning for lack of support by the military.

It believes Maduro is keeping top military brass loyal by bribes and threats and Guaidó’s call on the military on Tuesday to back his campaign was a desperate, last-ditch attempt to keep it alive.

Guaidó made the call outside La Carlota Air Base in Caracas, flanked by several uniformed military officers and his political ally Leopoldo Lopez — who had just been released by military troops after two years of house arrest.

Guaidó said the “final phase” of the movement to oust Maduro was beginning, that “brave soldiers, brave patriots, brave men devoted to the constitution have heeded our call” and urged more Venezuelans to fill the streets in protest.

On the same day, a 25-year-old man died and dozens of people were reportedly injured by rubber bullets, tear gas and live ammunition across the country, according to officials.

An armoured vehicle was reported to have run into a group of Guaidó supporters as hooded men from one of the pro-government gangs known as colectivos fired live ammunition at protesters, witnesses said.

However, speaking from Caracas, Venezuela’s ambassador to South Africa Mairin Moreno Merida defiantly insisted that “the country is in total normality” and that Guaidó’s military support was illusory.

“The constitutional government of President Nicolas Maduro… has defeated a new attempt by foreign powers to provoke confusion and disorder in the national territory,” she told Daily Maverick.

Referring to Guaidó and Lopez’s meeting in front of the air base, she said “a group of deputies from the National Assembly and a small group of low-rank military personnel” had “made a call for military insurrection that was ignored by the forces of public order, including by the initial group of military personnel stationed there, who have since declared they were tricked by one of their superior officers.”

She added that “this media operation for destabilisation” was backed by Colombia, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Panama, Pompeo, Bolton, US Senator Marco Rubio, the President of the European Parliament and the Secretary-General of the Organisation of American States.

These had all, “in an interventionist and criminal manner made public calls for the Venezuelan military forces to disobey their legitimate commanders and thereby promote national chaos”.

She added that her government had acted rapidly and the attempt by foreign powers “to spark a civil war, open the doors to a military intervention from abroad and impose a puppet government in our country” had failed.

“We call upon the international community to reject this violent attempt promoted by foreign powers to destroy the constitutional order in Venezuela,” Moreno Merida said.

She also addressed herself to South Africans, saying:

“It’s important for our friends in SA to be aware of the real situation in Venezuela.”

“They made a media show on CNN reporting that they had taken the military base, which is not true. The country and the city of Caracas are calm, apart from the media show.

“The revolutionary (pro-Maduro) forces are being mobilised… We are prepared to react and protect our sovereignty. We’ve been attacked since the beginning.”

South Africa has been a firm ally of Venezuela, including on the UN Security Council where it recently opposed a US resolution designed to put pressure on Maduro to step down and supported a rival Russian resolution urging the international community to allow Venezuelans to resolve their political crisis on their own. DM