The three biggest South African political parties’ choice of venues for their final rallies this weekend, as well as their themes, tells an interesting story ahead of the much-awaited May 8, 2019 general elections.

On one hand, it is a story of self-belief, confidence, arrogance, courage and bravado and on the other a tale of realism, fears, anxiety, uncertainty and self-doubt.

All three parties – the governing African National Congress (ANC), the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) – will, predictably, make their last major appeals for votes in Gauteng, the country’s economic powerhouse and administrative seat of government, which pundits and political analysts believe is there for the taking.

This is in light of the governing party’s rapidly-declining electoral fortunes since 2014 in the country’s most populous province following the loud arrival of the EFF, a party brimming with youthful exuberance and radical ideas that resonate with black people who believe that the political freedom attained in 1994 has not translated into economic freedom.

This weekend will present all three major parties with the last opportunity to demonstrate to the electorate going into the May 8 polls their strengths by drawing in large crowds to their respective rallies. It will be a show of force.

Choosing a venue for rallies like these, which are often beamed live on national TV, can be a tricky and daunting proposition. It can spectacularly backfire if the party fails to put bums on seats in the chosen venue. Or it could be an early indication of how strongly the party could perform on election day.

Like it did in its 2009 election campaign, when it thrust Jacob Zuma onto the electorate for the first time, despite his implication in corrupt activities, the ANC takes its final 2019 mass election rally to the 62,500-seater Ellis Park Stadium, which it again hopes to pack with supporters bused in from all corners of the country.

In 2009, with the newly-formed Congress of the People (Cope) led by former ANC national chairman Mosiuoa Lekota threatening to significantly eat into its support base, the ANC pulled out all stops to show the country that it was still the party of choice in South Africa’s political landscape.

To maximise the opportunity, the ANC dragged a gravely ill, 90-year-old Nelson Mandela out of retirement – dramatically flying him in in a chartered plane from his Eastern Cape home to parade him in front of the cheering crowds, some of which had spilled over into the 37,500-seater Johannesburg Stadium, the nearby overflow venue, where they followed proceedings via TV monitors. Mandela was too frail to stand unaided or speak, but the organisers desperately needed to prop up the tattered image of the ANC. With that single stroke of human insensitivity, any lingering doubt of Mandela’s support for the ANC was thus swiftly dealt with. The die was cast for Cope.

Fast-forward to 2019, the deeply divided ANC, which during the election campaign over the past few months has drawn a lot of ire from disenchanted voters in live radio and TV debates because of allegations of state capture, rampant corruption and poor service delivery record, will have its pulling power put to the test at its Siyanqoba (Victory is Certain) rally on Sunday in the midst of growing opposition around it.

But it seems as if the ANC itself is unsure of the level of public trust it still enjoys. Of course, it would not be considering the damning allegations of rampant corruption levelled against some of its senior leaders at the Zondo Commission of Inquiry into State Capture. It also cannot be too sure whether Ramaphosa’s promise to cleanse the ANC of the demons of malfeasance and wrongdoing has gone far enough to convince the voters who withheld their ballots in the last election to come back and vote for it.

It is also unsure of the magnitude and depth of the fightback campaign brewing within its ranks and has also found expression in parties such as the church-based African Transformation Movement (ATM), Andile Mngxitama’s Black First Land First and Hlaudi Motsoeneng’s African Content Movement (ACM), all of which are aligned to beleaguered former President Zuma.

It would appear that the ANC’s fear of a possible less-than-desired turnout at its final election rally made it steer away from choosing the 94,000-seater FNB Stadium on the other side of town as the venue for its final push.

The possible sight of rows of unoccupied seats at the bigger stadium three days before the elections would not be a great advert for a party that wants to win the elections, particularly in Gauteng, with a decisive majority.

In contrast, Julius Malema’s EFF is confident of upsetting the applecart on May 8. Buoyed by large and passionate crowds that have been attending its election rallies over the past three months, the EFF is daring the governing party – it is taking its final election rally to the 40,000-seater Orlando Stadium, right in the heart of Soweto, on Sunday, the same day the ANC will be holding its own.

The theme of the EFF rally, Tshela Thupa, says it all: We are here to administer the whip; we are taking the war to our opponents, particularly the ANC.

Unlike Cope, which remarkably won 37 seats in parliament in its first attempt in 2009 only to lose all of them bar three in the 2014 polls due to mindless leadership squabbles, the newest ANC breakaway party is growing stronger by the day. It’s loud. It’s boisterous. It’s ambitious. It’s radical. It’s everywhere. At the rate it is going, its only way is up.

Although it already styles itself as the governing party in waiting, the EFF’s biggest and realistic prize in these elections would be to emerge as a kingmaker or to topple the DA from its position as the official opposition.

The latter might seem far-fetched as most opinion polls suggest the EFF is only likely to double its electoral support to 12%.

But packing Orlando Stadium with more than 40,000 red-bereted supporters would be a strong message to voters that is a serious contender for political power.

Unlike the EFF, the DA, despite being more than three times the size of Malema’s party in parliament, lacks confidence and is less adventurous. The party has chosen to take a cautious approach by ending its election campaign at the 24,000-seater Dobsonville Stadium, the smallest of the three venues.

The choice by Mmusi Maimane’s DA of a venue this size, in the township where Maimane was born, to mark its final push to the election day could be because attending political rallies is not in the DNA of the party’s biggest support base, white South Africans. That could be true. But does the DA, which claims to have better policies to take South Africa forward, expect to be taken seriously when it tells potential voters in its rally theme: “We Can Win”?

This weak theme is reflective of a party that has already resigned itself to be defeated come May 8. Please credit Maimane & Co for being realistic about their chances in these hotly-contested elections. DM

Sy Makaringe is a Johannesburg-based journalist.