“It will be a right-wing government but I intend to be the prime minister of all Israel,” Netanyahu told cheering supporters in Tel Aviv, following a divisive campaign where alleged corruption and personal insult eclipsed policy differences.

An hour earlier, former army chief Benny Gantz, who only entered politics in late December and built his Blue & White bloc into a powerful insurgent force, made a similar claim of success to his backers. “This is a historic day for Israel,” he told raucous supporters.

Early exit polls showed Likud slightly trailing Gantz’s party but as the night wore on the picture changed in favor of the premier. By early morning, the surveys and early results put Netanyahu’s bloc of right-wing and religious partners ahead with a clearer path to forming the next government. Both sides said they were involved in talks with potential coalition partners.

Complicating the outcome is the relatively large number of parties that are in parliament but won’t necessarily win enough votes to make it into the next legislature. That’s made it difficult to predict how potential coalition governments could shape up.

“It’s too close to call but the tendency leans toward Netanyahu’s side,” said Abraham Diskin, a political scientist at Hebrew University. “We have to wait till we have the final results. Right now Netanyahu looks like he’s in a better position than Gantz” to form a coalition.

About 6.3 million people were eligible to vote for the 120-member parliament, or Knesset. Final results will be announced Thursday, and a week later President Reuven Rivlin will assign a party to build the next coalition. If Netanyahu prevails, he’s poised to become Israel’s longest-serving leader in July, surpassing founding father David Ben-Gurion.

As Israelis went to the polls, Gantz’s supporters echoed the retired general’s main campaign message, saying it was time for the prime minister, popularly known as Bibi, to go.

“I want Bibi not to be in power,” said Danielle Makbert, 23, at a Tel Aviv voting station.

Fight of His Life
The election, the toughest Netanyahu has ever faced, was overshadowed by Attorney General Avihai Mandelblit’s intention to charge the 69-year-old premier in three graft cases, pending a post-election hearing. Netanyahu says he’s an innocent victim of a political witch hunt and will only stand down if convicted.

With pre-election polls showing a tight race, Netanyahu waged a bruising campaign, painting the centrist candidate as a weak leftist while wooing right-wing voters with a promise to annex parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank that Palestinians want as the heartland of a future state.

Gantz has the security credentials prized by Israelis and a clean-hands image, but lacks the political experience the prime minister has accrued in a combined 13 years in office.

Sweeping Implications
The election result could ripple across a volatile region. Peacemaking with the Palestinians has stalled under Netanyahu’s watch; instead he opted to improve Israel’s ties with Gulf Arab states by leveraging a shared distrust of Iran. Gantz, a 38-year military veteran, has talked vaguely about “separation” from the Palestinians and hasn’t uttered the term “statehood,” yet he’s signaled he’d make more effort to restart peace talks.

A U.S. peace plan, which the Trump administration says will present new solutions to break the impasse, is expected to be unveiled shortly after the election.

Just ahead of polling, Netanyahu pitched for right-wing voters who might be tempted to back other nationalist factions, suggesting he could annex Jewish settlements in the West Bank.

Palestinian leaders say they see little difference in the policies of Netanyahu and Gantz toward the Israel-Palestinian conflict. Saeb Erekat, the secretary general of the Palestine Liberation Organization, said the exit polls showed Israelis had voted to “preserve the status quo.”

“They have said ‘no’ to peace and ‘yes’ to the occupation,” he said.

Turnout among Israeli Arabs was very low, and two of three exit polls showed one party not passing the electoral threshold. Arabs could have an enormous impact on elections, but have largely felt left out of the political process of a country that increasingly defines itself by its Jewish character.

Fending Off Pressure
For his supporters, Netanyahu has offered strong leadership in a combustible region. He enjoys warm relations with President Donald Trump, who’s delivered him jackpots like withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal, recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.

Taking a lead from Trump, Netanyahu in his speech said he’d triumphed despite the best efforts of an antagonistic media, while “Make America Great Again” flags were waved by members of the audience.

Israel’s economy grew nearly 75 percent during Netanyahu’s decade in power, expanding even during the global recession, though the gains haven’t done much to close the gap between rich and poor.

If he wins, allies could try to enact legislation protecting Netanyahu from prosecution as a sitting leader. Either way, another term could bring as much instability as continuity, with the prime minister preoccupied with battling to clear his name and fending off pressure to resign. DM