BY-ELECTIONS

ANC has a big night in Northern KZN, making gains against IFP

By Wayne Sussman 7 March 2019
Caption
Archive Photo: A voter casts his vote at a voting station in Kliptown during the local municipal elections in Soweto, near Johannesburg, South Africa, 03 August 2016. EPA/CORNELL TUKIRI

The ANC took two wards off the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), gaining wards in eNdumeni (Dundee) and uMhlabuyalingana in the far northern part of the province. The win in eNdumeni gave the party outright control of the council. The ANC has now won three wards off the IFP in northern KwaZulu-Natal since December 2018 and are rebounding against the IFP in this battleground part of the province. There were four other KwaZulu-Natal by-elections with the IFP and EFF registering good gains in some of the races. The DA had a convincing hold in Nelson Mandela Bay and the ANC largely held their ground in a Limpopo by-election.

Ward 3 in eNdumeni (Sithembile Glencoe) ANC 57% (43%) IFP 38% (53%) EFF 4% (4%) NFP 1%

The by-election took place in Sithembile, a township next to the small town of Glencoe which is a few kilometres rom the principal town of eNdumeni-Dundee. eNdumeni is part of the uMzinyathi district municipality in northern KwaZulu-Natal. This was the second by-election in Ward 3 in eNdumeni since 2016. Before 2016, this was an ANC stronghold, with the IFP upsetting the ANC here in 2016 and then regaining the ward in a 2017 by-election. The reason for the two by-elections is because both IFP councillors were booted out by the party for disobeying party instructions. The previous councillor was expelled for helping elect an ANC councillor as speaker of eNdumeni.

The municipality has been in chaos since the former IFP Mayor was arrested on charges of conspiracy to commit murder. The infighting amongst the IFP councillors, and the jockeying for positions between them, gifted the municipality to the ANC in 2018. Even though the ANC did not have the numbers, having six councillors against the four of the IFP, the two of the DA and one from the EFF. In order for the opposition to have the numbers to win back power from the ANC, they would have needed to defend this ward and a ward vacancy in a DA held ward after the general elections.

The ANC have now gained outright control of eNdumeni and will no longer have to cooperate with errant IFP councillors to keep power here. This should bring some stability to the council.

The ANC had convincing wins in both of the voting districts as the IFP failed to replicate what they achieved in the 2016 local government elections, and in the 2017 by-election.

The new council composition is ANC 7 (6) IFP 3 (4) DA 2 EFF 1-Total 13

Turn-out was 64% (66%)

Ward 3 in Nongoma (Sovane Kombuzi) IFP 56% (49%) ANC 34% (45%) NFP 7% NPF 2% EFF 1% (3%)

This is a rural ward which comprises small villages north of the town of Nongoma between the R66 road leading to Pongola and the N2.

The IFP went into this by-election with outright control of Nongoma, and needed a win here to keep that outright control. A loss here would see it holding only 50% of the seats, which would have resulted in it seeking a working agreement with the DA. Nongoma is part of the Zululand District municipality in northern KwaZulu-Natal, an IFP stronghold.

The ANC needed a 3% swing here to win the ward but fell short and lost ground. The IFP was able to win over 50% of the vote this time round. In 2016 the IFP won four out of the seven voting districts, last night they won five of the seven voting districts in the ward. They flipped the Bhekintinta High School district in the village of Sovane in impressive fashion by receiving 71% of the vote, almost doubling their percentage returns in 2016 when they received 39% of the vote. In contrast, the ANC fell from 58% to 26% in the district.

The NFP caused the IFP to lose ground in two of the voting districts. The NFP got 16% in both of these districts. However, while the NFP came third in the ward last night, it must be remembered that Nongoma was their stronghold in 2011. This result would be worrying for the party. The EFF continues to struggle in Nongoma. They could only get 1% in the ward, and finished behind the National People’s Front (NPF), a party formed after a former NFP leader broke away from the party.

Turn-out was a high 56% (61%).

Ward 7 in uMhlabuyalingana (Qondweni Mbazwana) ANC 56% (37%) IFP 42% (56%) EFF 2% (4%).

This was an IFP-held seat, in the ANC stronghold of uMhlabuyalingana in the uMkhanyakude District in KwaZulu-Natal. uMhlabuyalingana borders the iSimangaliso Wetland Park on its southern edge, and up north, borders the Mozambique border near Ponta do Ouro. Ward 7 is a sparsely populated, rural ward which sits next to the iSimangaliso Wetland Park, and includes villages next to the R22 provincial road, and also includes small settlements which are more inland such asMphakathini and Gedleza.

In 2016 the IFP won all but one of the voting districts. Last night they only won three out of the eight voting districts as the ANC won this ward off the IFP in convincing fashion. Examples of this were in the village of Qondweni, The IFP vote fell at the Hlulabantu School from 70% to 51% and the ANC went up from 18% to 43%. At the Qondweni Primary School, the IFP’s vote share went from 62% to 43%, while the ANC went from 31% to 54%. At the village of Mbube, north of Mbazwana, the ANC went from 48% to 76%, while the IFP’s vote share plummeted from 47% to 24%.

The new council composition is: ANC 23 (22) IFP 9 (10) DA 1 EFF 1 AIC 1. Outstanding result for the ANC

67% (70%) Poll-Very high turn-out.

eThekwini By-Elections

Ward 88 in eThekwini (Umlazi) ANC 74% (77% PR*) IFP 10% (9% PR) EFF 8% (8% PR) NFP 8%

The ward is an ANC stronghold in the Umlazi township, south of the city centre. The by-election was called after the ward councillor for Ward 88 was assassinated in October.

The ANC had an easy hold in Ward 88 last night. They won every single voting district. At Inkonkoni School in Umlazi V, the ANC received over 91% of the ballot, improving on the 83% they received on the proportional representation (PR) ballot in 2016. The ANC found it toughest at the Masibambaneni Day Care Centre in Umlazi, where the party could only get 41% of the vote, down from the 51% they got on the PR ballot in 2016. The National Freedom Party (NFP) took 34% of the vote here.

The NFP had encouraging returns in the ward as they did not contest here in 2016. It must be noted that they received 70% of their votes in 1 of the 7 voting districts (Masibambaneni Daye Care Centre)

Turn-out was 21% (49%)

Ward 91 in eThekwini (Mpumalanga) ANC 70% (86% PR) EFF 18% (2% PR) IFP 12% (6% PR)

This is solid ANC territory, west of Durban, near Cato Ridge, off the road to Pietermaritzburg. It is on the periphery of the Metro, near the municipal border.

While the ANC mirrored their 2016 result on the ward ballot last night, it is better to do a comparison with the PR ballot as the ward had three independents running here in 2016. The ANC got over 90% on the PR ballot in six of the nine voting districts in 2016, they were only able to achieve this in two of the nine districts last night.

The EFF and the IFP were able to make good inroads in Ward 91 last night. The EFF finished behind the DA on both ballots in 2016. They barely made a dent in the ward in 2016. Last night they improved in every single voting district. They got 20% or more of the vote in three of the nine voting districts.

The IFP won two voting districts off the ANC, winning both the Uxolophambili High School voting district and Esihonqeni School voting district in Mpumalanga A. The challenge for the IFP was that they battled in the other seven districts.

Turn-out here was 28% (63%)

Ward 22 (Madadeni) in Newcastle ANC 65% (73%) EFF 21% (13%) IFP 13% (12%) NFP 1%

This is a safe ANC ward in Newcastle. Newcastle is the principal town and biggest municipality in the Amajuba District of KwaZulu-Natal. Ward 22 is in the vote-rich Madadeni township. The ANC lost a neighbouring ward in Madadeni to an independent candidate in April 2017.

While the ANC had a comfortable hold on Wednesday night, they did lose some ground to the EFF. In 2016, the ANC got over 70% of the vote in all three districts. Last night they fell under the 70% mark in all of the districts.

At Ikwhezi High School in Madadeni A, the EFF went from 13% of the vote to 26%. The returns at Mbalenhle School in Madadeni A saw the EFF improve from 8% to 20%.

Turn-out was 36%. (44%)

Eastern Cape

Ward 2 (Summerstrand, Humewood) in Nelson Mandela Bay Metro DA 93% (90%) ANC 4% (6%) ACDP 2% (1%)

This is a very safe DA seat in Port Elizabeth. The DA was able to win over 90% of the vote in all three voting districts on Wednesday night and improve on their 2016 showing. The African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) would have liked to have performed better. More conservative parties battle to win over traditional DA voters in Nelson Mandela Bay.

Turn-out was 36% (74%)

Limpopo

Ward 5 (Riba Cross Madiseng) in Fetakgomo Tubatse in Limpopo ANC 69% (72%) EFF 29% (19%)

Fetakgomo Tubatse was formed after the 2016 local government elections when the Fetakgomo and Greater Tubatse municipalities amalgamated. The municipality is part of the Sekhukhune District Municipality. The ANC won all 39 wards contested in the 2016 local government elections. Ward 5 lies near the R37 road to Burgersfort.

The ANC will be more than satisfied with this big win. They lost a bit of ground, but the EFF’s growth in the ward was more at the expense of other parties on the Left, than from the ANC. Socialist Agenda of Dispossessed Africans (SADA) got 92 votes here in 2016. They could only muster seven votes last night. Other parties like the Azanian Peoples Organization (AZAPO) and the Pan Africanist Congress (PAC) barely registered last night.

Turn-out was 31% (46%)

The next round of by-elections are on the 27thof March when the ANC will defend 15 wards in Maluti a Phofung in the Free State, and the IFP will defend two key by-elections in northern KwaZulu-Natal. DM

* The proportional ballot results were used as a mode of comparison here as independents stood for these seat in 2016, and the ward result from 2016 is not as accurate a reflection of the ward as the proportional ballot result

Gallery

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