May’s Brexit Deal: You Don’t Have the Votes — What Comes Next?

Strategies to Get Deal Through Parliament (11:23 a.m.)

With eyes now on how May will defy parliamentary math to get her deal through, her spokeswoman was asked about something that’s become known as the two-step vote process. Essentially it would entail bracing the government for a defeat at the first attempt, watch the markets have a meltdown and then put it to the vote again having spooked lawmakers into submission.

May’s spokeswoman Alison Donnelly said it absolutely was not the government’s strategy. An official, speaking on anonymity, said it would be a wildly irresponsible undertaking.

This is where this particular rumor got started.

Tories Risk Losing Voters With Brexit Plan: Davis (10:36 a.m.)

Former Brexit Secretary David Davis is the latest to call on May to rethink her Brexit plan, saying in a blog on news website Huffington Post that the Conservatives risk losing the next general election otherwise.

“If this declaration is allowed to stand and the Withdrawal Agreement is passed we will not be easily forgiven and we will inevitably be sleepwalking to electoral defeat at the next General Election,” he said.

Davis added that the proposed agreement means the U.K. will “not really be leaving in March” and will instead be trapped in the backstop and tied to EU institutions.

EU Officials Meet in Brussels to Sign Off on Deal (10:20 a.m.)

Aides to EU leaders from the 27 member states, known as sherpas, are meeting in Brussels today to sign off on the deal on future U.K.-EU ties. The meeting, which started at 10 a.m. CET, should hopefully pave the way for the summit on Sunday to simply rubber-stamp the deal.

The risk is that after the Commission sought to sidestep individual countries’ objections by rushing the deal out Thursday, some may use the Sunday meeting to make their objections heard.

Avoid ‘Thelma & Louise’ Brexit, Gibraltar Chief Says (9 a.m.)

With Spain threatening to veto the Brexit deal (which it can’t) over the issue of Gibraltar, the territory’s chief minister Fabian Picardo appealed for calm.

If Spain succeeds in reopening the text of the agreement at a summit this weekend, it will allow Tories in London, and the French government and others to demand changes to the deal as well. That could unravel the whole process, he said.

Picardo told BBC Radio 4’s Today program that MPs should back the deal rather than driving the U.K. into a chaotic exit. “We are paid to bring certainty to the lives of individuals and to the prospects of business,” he said. “Anybody who says my political view, my political prospectus is that we should drive over this cliff like a political Thelma & Louise isn’t thinking about the best interests of the people of the United Kingdom or Gibraltar.”

Hinds Says Parliament Will Block ‘No Deal’ Brexit (8:20 a.m.)

May sent her education secretary, Damian Hinds, onto the airwaves on Friday to defend her plan and rally support for it. He did not sound confident that MPs will back the package, saying only that while it seemed to lack support now, it will gain “more traction” before it comes to a vote.

Crucially, Hinds endorsed the view that Parliament ultimately won’t allow the U.K. to crash out of the EU without an agreement. It’s probably correct that there’s no parliamentary majority for no deal, he told BBC Radio’s Today program.

The minister also accepted that the outline of a future trade accord — published on Thursday — does not repeat May’s promise of “frictionless” trade between the U.K. and the EU.

Raab Says the Deal Will Get Voted Down (7:50 a.m.)

Former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab predicted May’s deal will “inevitably” be voted down when Parliament has its say. At that point alternative plans — including a No Deal exit — will need to be considered, he said.

The former minister — who quit May’s cabinet in protest at her plans last week — renewed his criticism of her deal in an interview with BBC Radio 4’s Today program. He said the EU wanted to lock the U.K. into its trade regime with no say over the rules, so that Britain can’t get a “competitive advantage” over the bloc. “We would have to kowtow to them.”

May Appeals to the Public (7:30 a.m.)

May will try to sell her Brexit deal directly to the public on Friday, with a simultaneous BBC radio and television question and answer session.

Her plan seems to be to get the public to put pressure on members of Parliament to vote for her deal when she puts it to the House of Commons — probably in December.

On the current showing, it seems that May is struggling to get enough of her own party on board to win that so called “meaningful vote.”

Veteran Brexiteer Iain Duncan Smith — who’s influential with fellow euroskeptic Tories — says her outline agreement with the EU for the future trade negotiations is not enough to persuade him to vote for the prime minister’s overall package.

Former minister Greg Hands told German radio there are about 80 Conservative MPs who either oppose it or won’t vote for it. He is skeptical, but won’t “necessarily” vote against it.

Northern Ireland’s DUP Digs In (7:30 a.m.)

DUP lawmaker Jeffrey Donaldson said Parliament will vote down May’s Brexit deal, given some elements are “unacceptable.” In an interview with broadcaster RTE , he issued a veiled threat to the party’s continued support for May’s minority administration, saying the supply and confidence arrangement continues “ for the moment” but Brexit is a “crucial” part of the accord.

Coming Up:

May’s phone-in with the BBC at 12:30 p.m.May heads to Brussels on Saturday to meet EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. DM