Great Kei By-Elections

There were three by-elections in the Great Kei municipality on Wednesday night. The reason for this large amount of by-elections was after three ward councillors and two proportional representation councillors from the ANC resigned from the party in solidarity with the former ANC mayor, who was recalled by the provincial structures of the ANC.

The Great Kei is a rural municipality centred around the town of Komga in the Amathole District of the Eastern Cape. It is an ANC stronghold, with the ANC holding nine out of the 13 seats on the council. The Democratic Alliance (DA) has two seats, with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and an Independent councillor holding one seat each.

ANC hold Ward 4 in Great Kei (Lusasa Mandela Park) near Komga in the Amathole Region of the Eastern Cape. ANC 87% (91%) Independent-Mevana-Siswana (Incumbent) (12%) EFF 1% (5%). 53% (57%) Poll. Great result for the ANC

Ward 4 in Great Kei (Lusasa Mandela Park) near Komga in the Eastern Cape. ANC 87% (91%) Independent-Mevana-Siswana (Incumbent) (12%) EFF 1% (5%).

Ward 4 comprises numerous rural villages which lie near the intersection of the R349 and the N2 roads. Nonkosinathi Mevana-Siswana tried to win back her seat but came well short in this stronghold of the ANC. The ANC was able to get more than 80% of the vote in six of the eight voting districts of this ward. It was an impressive hold for the party, as it blunted the ambitions of its former councillor. The EFF struggled here last night.

Turn-out was 53%, marginally down from the 57% in 2016.

Ward 6 in Great Kei (Komga) in the Eastern Cape. ANC 67% (66% PR*) DA 18% (25% PR) Independent-Ndabambi 10% EFF 3% (8% PR) UDM 2%

Ward 6 is centred around the town of Komga. Komga is the seat of power in the municipality and sits on the R63.

Of the three wards up for grabs last night, this was supposed to be the trickiest for the ANC. The DA picked up a quarter of the proportional vote here in 2016. While a former ANC councillor did contest this ward, it was by a former proportional councillor Ndabambi, and not the incumbent ward councillor-Linda Tonze.

While the DA increased its percentage vote share in its stronghold, the district around the Komga Town Hall, from 58% on the proportional ballot in 2016, to 63% last night, turn-out for this district was lower than all the other districts at 34%. In stark contrast was the turn-out at the traditionally ANC vote-rich district around the Komga Great Hall. Turn-out here was the highest for the ward at 53%. Even though the ANC’s percentage vote share was slightly down at 79% from the 85% it received on the proportional ballot in 2016, the ANC received 40 more votes last night when one compares the two ballots, pocketing 662 votes as opposed to the 622 votes it got on the proportional ballot in 2016.

This was a great result for the ANC as they comfortably saw off the challenge of their former colleague and the opposition parties lost ground here.

Turn-out in the by-election was 47%, compared to the 54% of voters who showed up in 2016.

* The proportional ballot results were used as a mode of comparison here as three independents stood for this seat in 2016, and the ward result from 2016 is not as accurate reflection of the ward as the proportional ballot. In 2016 the ANC received 47% of the ward vote, the DA 21% and the EFF 4%. The three independent candidates received 28% of the vote between them.

Ward 7 in Great Kei (Siviwe and Farms) in the Eastern Cape. ANC 64% (84%) Independent-Gqomoroshe (Incumbent) 22% EFF 10% (9% PR) Independent-Lewis 2% Independent-Ndarana 1% UDM 1%.

The population bulk of this ward is centred around the voting district of the Siviwe school. The remainder of this ward are stations on or near farms in the district. The former ward councillor Temba Gqomoroshe contested this by-election as an independent. Of the three former ANC councillors contesting, he fared the best, but still came well short of winning his ward back and finishing his term.

He was only able to win one voting district – Draaibosch farm, and while he got over 20% of the vote in Siviwe, he struggled in the rest of the ward.

With Gqomoroshe getting over 20% of the vote in Siviwe, the ANC were bound to lose votes in this stronghold, getting 69% of the vote, as opposed to 92% in 2016. That 69% though, was still more than enough for the ANC to win the ward comfortably. It must be noted that unlike the other two by-elections, the EFF was able to garner a higher percentage of the vote in this ward compared to 2016.

Turn-out was 51%. In 2016 it was 56%.

Ward 3 in Moqhaka (Kroonstad Morewag Noordhoek) in the Free State. DA 53% (61%) ANC 22% (16%) VF+ 20% (17%) EFF 5% (5%).

Moqhaka municipality is centred around the town of Kroonstad in the Fezile Dabi district. The Fezile Dabi district also includes towns such as Sasolburg and Parys. Ward 3 of Moqhaka is in a suburban part of Kroonstad which includes suburbs such as Morewag, Noordhoek and Wespark.

The ANC beat the Vryheids Front + (VF+) for second place last night. This was achieved by running the DA very close in two voting districts. At the Hoer Landbou Skool district, both the DA and the ANC received 41% of the vote with the DA ending up on 118 votes, and the ANC on 116. At the Ben Mervis Street district in Noordhoek, a smaller district, the ANC came within eight votes of the DA, getting 55 votes compared to the DA’s 63 votes. That being said, this small district was the most competitive district in 2016, where the ANC came within 12 votes of the DA.

While the VF+ had a higher percentage in this election, compared to 2016, they would have wanted to keep their second place. They got over 26% of the vote in Morewag at the Afrikaanse Hoer Skool (Rooi Skool) voting district, but this was only slightly up from what they got here in 2016, when they got 24%.

The DA will be concerned at their decreased returns here, but will be relieved that the VF+ were not able to replicate their gains in another recent by-election in Ngwathe (Parys) in the Fezile Dabi district of the province.

Turn-out was 44%, down from 60% in 2016.

Ward 3 in George (Heather Park) in the Western Cape. DA 81% (91%) VF+ 12% (4%) ACDP 7% (3%) EFF 0.

George municipality covers the large town in the south western part of the Western Cape. It also includes The Wilderness. George is part of the Eden District which includes Oudtshoorn, Plettenberg Bay and Knysna. Ward 3 is a suburban seat which includes Heather Park, a suburb near Fancourt.

This was the first by-election not contested by the ANC in 2018. This is a DA stronghold, and while the DA had a big win last night, they did lose some ground to the VF+ and the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP).

This is the second George by-election in 2018 where the DA has been dented by the VF+. In April, the VF+ went from 4% to 14% in Ward 18 (Loerie Park Denneoord). Last night they went from 4% to 12%. If the VF+ continues this trend, and is able to lure more conservative voters from the DA they could well win a seat in the Western Cape provincial parliament next year. There is a by-election in December in a safe DA seat in Saldanha Bay, which includes Jacobsbaai. It will be interesting to see what the DA’s returns will be and whether the VF+ can make a contest out of that by-election.

The DA will also note that while turn-out was a credible 40%, it was well down from the 77% of 2016. This will also worry them with regards to turn-out for the 2019 elections.

It must be noted that this is where the EFF registered their worst by-election showing of 2018 winning 0 votes. The candidate did not even vote for himself.

The next by-election will be on 5December when the ANC defend a competitive seat (Ward 9-Koue Bokkeveld) in Witzenberg in the Western Cape. The by-election was scheduled for next week and postponed by the Electoral Court. DM