It is rather amusing to see how the South African National Roads Agency’s (Sanral’s) latest release of e-toll revenue data, depicts a gross manipulation of its forecasts, even historical forecasts, to make its dismal e-toll revenue performance appear to be on track. But this is not the first time Sanral has showered the public (and its bosses) with such overt propaganda, in order to spruce up a rather sad picture of a dire situation.

In 2012, Sanral claimed in court that it would achieve its forecast of an average of R260-million per month from the Gauteng e-tolls project. But a few months after the scheme’s launch, Sanral realised it was far off the mark and duly lowered its forecast to reflect actual performances as being on track. By mid-2014, despite a coercive approach of threatening motorists with criminal records, Sanral could only muster around 45% of the freeway road users to contribute a maximum of R120-million per month in e-toll revenue, some 55% below its target of R260m.

By May 2015, things got more interesting. With Sanral’s dismal and declining e-toll performance heading south since July 2014, bosses decided to revise lowered targets even lower, in a vain attempt to paint a pretty picture. But not only did they revise the forecast, they changed previous forecasts in May 2015, as far back as October 2014.

Sanral bosses were so blasé in their new projections, they didn’t even bother to apply their minds to seasonal variations.They simply inserted a flat forecast of R46-million per month from January to May 2015, as if to imply that the holiday months of January and April (Easter) will not affect e-toll revenues. These new forecasts of R46-million per month in 2015, are significantly lower than the average monthly forecast of R78-million for the first quarter of 2014. And yet, this week, some in media covered stories of how the Department of Transport and Sanral were reflecting on improved e-toll revenues.

The table below reflects e-toll revenues generated and forecasts, as provided by Sanral.

I guess one can try fool some of the people all the time, but this nonsensical propaganda is taking “manipulation by numbers” to another level. Once again, the public have witnessed more misleading information and sheer propaganda from this once respected state owned entity, that treats the public as fools and expects to get away with it. DM