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Obama’s balancing act in Kenya

Obama’s balancing act in Kenya

At the halfway point in US President Barack Obama’s Kenya-Ethiopia trip, J BROOKS SPECTOR looks at the larger meaning of this trip for America’s relationships with Africa.

Twenty years ago, a young Barack Obama, on the verge of his first political campaign for an Illinois state senate race, published his real life bildungsroman, Dreams From My Father. The book chronicled his life up to his entry into Harvard Law School and it provided a thought-provoking description of his trip to Kenya so that he could come to grips with the tenuous but persistent legacy of his father’s Kenyan origins and on his own circumstances as an American, an African American, and a man with a potent but virtually unexamined African heritage.

Over the years, Obama has made the occasional visit to Kenya but it is only now, in the sixth year of his presidency, that he has finally returned to that nation as part of a two-country visit along with Ethiopia. Some in Africa have been waiting impatiently for this moment but this particular visit comes at the end of a week in which Africa has been a major focus. There was Obama’s signing of the renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act for the next 10 years, as well as the high-profile Washington visit by recently elected Nigerian president Muhammadu Buhari, in addition to the two-nation visit.

A number of factors seemed to keep Obama away from Kenya during his presidency, even though he had visited the continent four times (Ghana, South Africa twice, and Egypt). In part, of course, a Kenya visit would have been particularly awkward given the proceedings taking shape against President Uhuru Kenyatta at the International Criminal Court. Those charges have now been suspended, of course, and so that impediment had largely gone away.

But out there, somewhere in the background, was also that lingering “birther” calumny, pushed by people such as Donald Trump, that Barack Obama had secretly been born in Kenya rather than Hawaii and that therefore he was never eligible to be president of the US that in some weird way he was a kind of surreptitious African-Muslim-Manchurian candidate placed in office by shadowy, dark forces. As a result, perhaps there have been a tinge of concern in the White House that a visit to his father’s homeland would reactivate this nonsense, once there were pictures with paternal relatives and interviews with family members. (Of course, Obama will never run for president again, so the birthers no longer count, despite any poison they may eventually mutter under their breath or in the danker parts of social media.) Regardless of any such concerns, the visit is now halfway over. Obama has made his way to the second leg of his East African visit, following a rather well-modulated Kenya visit, that managed to make all the necessary points.

In making the visit to Kenya, Obama received some domestic criticism including pressure from human rights, gender and gay, lesbian, bisexual, transsexual and intersexed (LGBTI) nongovernmantal organistions and activists that he must address human rights abuses, corruption, gender discrimination, and legalised discrimination against gays in Kenya, even as his hosts would have been warning him to stay away from any explicit discussions on those very topics. Surely, they would have said there was enough to talk about, what with Somalia and terror, development issues, international financing of development, and how best to encourage growth in trade, all without dealing with the list of culturally and politically touchy topics. The Obama administration largely declined to dodge those more prickly topics and addressed them directly, along with the more usual bromides about trade, development, security and other verities, especially as part a large set-piece speech before thousands of cheering Kenyans.

As one of South Africa’s best-informed, senior foreign affairs media analysts explained: “I think Obama seems so far to have done the balancing act quite well, advancing US security and economic interests while making clear, in Kenya at least, his stance on LGBTI rights, on corruption, on tribalism, especially as a cause of political violence, on inequality, and on gagging civil society. He raised the last four issues in what sounds to have been a hard-hitting speech to a large crowd of about 6000 today in the presence of Kenyatta and his cabinet. This must have been quite hard for them to swallow in front of such a large audience of their people. The Kenyans were complaining that he had not before visited his fathers birthplace as president. Well they got their visit and they seemed to have paid for it by taking some straight criticism.”

In fact, the US and American ideas despite persistent media chatter that China has captured the hearts, minds and bank accounts of much of Africa are being viewed positively in Africa, according to the most recent Pew Research Center report. As Pew reported just as Obama was poised to depart for East Africa: “When President Barack Obama travels to Kenya and Ethiopia later this week, he will likely receive a warm public reception. Obama, whose father was Kenyan, is very popular in both countries, as well as in many other nations in sub-Saharan Africa. But it’s not just Obama as Pew Research Center surveys have shown over the years, the United States consistently receives high marks throughout the region.” And, anecdotally, media reports say newborns throughout Kenya are being named Obama and Air Force One in his honour.

The new Pew report noted that even as China also garners favourable feelings on the continent: “The US receives higher favourable ratings in Africa than in any other region. Our 2015 survey found mostly positive ratings for the US around the globe, but they were especially high in Africa across the nine nations surveyed in the region, a median of 79% expressed a favorable opinion of the US, while just 10% had an unfavorable view.” And as the Pew data went on to show, Obama remains very popular in Africa. “Big majorities in all nine African nations surveyed express confidence in him, including 80% of Kenyans and 65% of Ethiopians. Obama’s predecessor, George W Bush, also received mostly positive ratings in the region, and the rise in anti-Americanism that occurred in many parts of the world during the Bush era was largely absent in Africa.”

Moreover, key elements of American soft power continue to be eagerly embraced across Africa, with people expressing “positive attitudes toward American science and technology, ways of doing business, ideas about democracy, and popular culture. Moreover, a median of 56% said it was good that American ideas and customs were spreading to their country a higher percentage than in the other regions where we asked this question in 2012 and 2013.” This largely favourable view seems unlikely to be dented by the current Kenya-Ethiopia visit, especially as Obama continues to deliver a message that does not dodge those tougher issues such as corruption or gender discrimination.

Along with that big set-piece speech to the big crowd, there were a number of other events. He offered opening remarks at an international entrepreneurs conference, a wreath-laying ceremony in memory of the people killed by a terrorist bomb at the American Embassy in 1998, and had a family dinner with the elder Obama’s extended family.

Then there were also the expected discussions with Kenya’s leaders so the US president could announce additional American assistance in dealing with the security threat posed by Al-Shabbab. On this point, that widely respected South African foreign affairs analyst added: “Obama also announced increased US support for Kenyas fight against Al-Shabaab but here the picture is a bit more sketchy. He talked about intelligence sharing, training and funding, but not more. I suspect that, as with (Nigerian President Muhammadu) Buhari, Obama would have declined any requests for more lethal assistance, on the grounds that Kenya is harming the counter-terrorism cause by its over-reaction to attacks and targeting of Muslims per se, (Something) which he referred to obliquely and which former (US) ambassadors (to Kenya) (William M) Bellamy and (Johnnie) Carson had criticised in the New York Times. However there have been reports that the US is stepping up drone attacks on Al-Shabaab, but this would be its own actions, not Kenyas.”

Now that he is in Ethiopia, Obama faces a similar balancing act in his interactions with Ethiopians and in his address to the African Union. He will be trying to deliver messages that speak to African and American joint interests, while avoiding sounding like the class scold in alluding unfavourably to the actions of other nations such as China in their dealings with Africa, and in threading the needle in criticising Ethiopia’s repressive political behaviour while praising its growing economy.

This will include criticism of that government’s putting pressure on the country’s political opposition, the way corruption stifles economic growth, and a critique of Ethiopian attitudes towards equal treatment of GLBTI citizens, among others. All of this will have to come about, even as he speaks to his own hopes for more connections with Africa. While in Ethiopia, Obama will meet with African Union (AU) Commission chairwoman Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, and attend other events that put a spotlight on US support for food security efforts and increased economic and trade co-operation with Ethiopia.

But as AP White House correspondent Julie Pace noted about this Ethiopia leg of the trip: “Grave concerns remain, however, over political freedoms in this nation of more than 90-million — Africas second largest — and opposition figures fear that the visit, coming on the heels of an improbable 100% ruling party win in elections, will give international legitimacy to a repressive government.”

In all of this, comments by some as in a story in The Sunday Times, quoting a report by an international risk analysis consulting company that the entire trip is just the latest element of a new international power struggle for Africa, reminiscent of the earlier Soviet-American cold war period only this time between China and the US seem misplaced. The story cited DaMina Advisors saying that even as South Africa turns east with its Brics connections, Nigeria is moving towards closer ties with the West. The story said: “Africa’s 54 economically and militarily weak dependent states are fast emerging as the final frontiers for global geopolitical bloc rivalries‚’ they opine‚ adding that it is against this renewed geopolitical competition between the ‘East’ and the ‘West‚’ that the US president’s seminal two-nation African visit to Kenya and Ethiopia is taking place. While the visit to Kenya will be masked by emotional nostalgia due to Obama’s partial Kenyan parentage‚ in Ethiopia‚ Obama’s address to the 54-nation African Union states‚ (from the podium of a new Chinese funded swanky AU headquarters building)‚ will powerfully highlight the continent’s stark geopolitical choices.”

It is surely true that total trade with Africa has shifted significantly towards China, as opposed to the US, as a result of growing Chinese demands for African-produced raw materials, even as US aid continues to be significantly ahead of Chinese foreign aid. However, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) window is now open for a decade for more African products to be exported to the US duty free and that may eventually help redress some of this growing gap as African nations move up the value chain in manufactured or processed products. Nevertheless, one should look more to Obama’s drawing upon that reservoir of goodwill towards the US noted by the Pew Research Center, even as the American thrust to Africa focuses increasingly on trade and investment and away from the more traditional patron-client relationship seen with foreign aid.

In surveying this very landscape, The Economist has argued: “China’s open wallet is making Kenya and other African countries less dependent on western investment, though they still seek it. A growing populism has also made relations trickier. In Kenya and elsewhere, elections are becoming more competitive as urbanisation, technology and anti-corruption measures shrink traditional patronage networks. Politicians have to work harder to win supporters. Railing against western imperialism is a vote-winner in some countries, and requires no skill on the part of the politician.

All that is meant to be forgotten when the first African-American president of the United States lands in what Kenyans say is his home, even though he has spent almost no time there. Both sides now wish to see a change of tone, not least given new opportunities to co-operate in commerce and counter-terrorism following strong economic growth and ever more terror attacks. The thaw has been made easier by the collapse of the case against Mr Kenyatta at the International Criminal Court (partly because witnesses were intimidated or killed). And so the two presidents hope to sign joint-venture contracts in public and deepen a security partnership behind closed doors. In Nigeria Americans have seized on the election of Muhammadu Buhari as a chance to mend ties and push reform. Mr Buhari has been put up in Blair House, which is reserved for the most important guests of the president. No other African leader has visited the Oval Office so soon after taking power.”

Right from the get-go of Obama’s presidential approach to Africa right back to his speech in Accra in 2009 (and even in his second book, The Audacity of Hope), Obama had urged a new kind of African “self reliance” in building societies and drawing upon the strength of trade and investment to build a stronger middle class and a growing economy. As Obama said this time around, when he signed the African Growth and Opportunities Act into law, along with several other trade measures, just prior to departing for Kenya: “It also reauthorises Agoa, the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which has had strong bipartisan support for many years now, and which helps open up markets in Africa to American businesses while making it easier for African businesses to sell their products in America.” To this, The Economist said: “As well as security, aid policy is now aimed more directly at boosting American investors’ fortunes and American social-policy aims on the continent. Power Africa, one of Mr Obama’s favoured projects, is a typical example: this costs the American taxpayer relatively little directly, but instead uses loan guarantees and diplomacy in an attempt — though so far with only modest results — to convince private firms to invest in power generation.”

But the Obama vision has also looked to an engagement with Africa’s young people, via his advocacy of new, high-profile international exchange activities as well as a growing engagement with young entrepreneurs, both of these efforts based on a realisation the continent has a particularly youthful population, an aspirant middle class, that longs for American goods, services and cultural products. To the extent that such connections are nurtured and strengthened in the continent’s fast-growing economies, the Obama administration has in fact been thinking strategically for the longer term, rather than seeking immediate geopolitical advantage. And this is clearly beyond a simple-minded effort to withstand the impact of a Chinese tide of money for highways, airports, harbours, and agricultural estates and the flood of inexpensive, Chinese-made consumer goods. DM

Photo: US President Barack Obama gestures as he delivers a speech at Moi International Sports Complex in Nairobi, Kenya, 26 July 2015. EPA/DAI KUROKAWA.

For more, read:

  • Obama’s most dangerous trip yet at Politico.com;

  • Barack Obama in Kenya: ‘no excuse’ for treating women as second-class citizens at the Guardian;

  • President Obama’s official timetable for Kenya and Ethiopia at Hornaffairs.com;

  • Obama in Kenya: An Upbeat Tone, but Notes of Discord, Too at the New York Times;

  • Obama commits U.S. to intensified fight against terrorists in East Africa at the Washington Post;

  • AGOA and the next steps for African trade at AGOA.info;

  • Obama visit highlights Africa’s geopolitical conundrums at Timeslive;

  • Obama, Kenyatta clash on gay rights in Kenya at Politico.com;

  • Barack Obama is popular in Africa, but has not paid the continent enough attention at the Economist;

  • 5 charts on America’s (very positive) image in Africa at the Pew Research Center;

  • Obama: Kenya at ‘crossroads’ between peril and promise at the AP;

  • Obama’s visit raises Ethiopia’s stature amid rights concerns at the AP;

  • Africa in the news: Obama goes to Kenya, Buhari meets Obama, and Nkurunziza wins third term in office at the Brookings Institution;

  • Obama’s trip to Kenya: Economic highlights at the Brookings Institution;

  • Obama’s trip to Ethiopia: Economic highlights at the Brookings Institution.

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